Stocks Starting Busy Week Slightly Lower

U.S. stocks are slightly lower in early action as investors get ready for a plethora of earnings reports set to flood the Street this week and as the Fed and Bank of Japan are set to deliver monetary policy decisions on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. Treasuries are nearly unchanged with the economic calendar void of any releases before the opening bell, while gold, crude oil and the U.S. dollar are all trading lower. Overseas, stocks in Asia were mixed and European shares are advancing on some upbeat German business climate data.

Markets Look to Return to Winning Ways

U.S. stocks are modestly higher in early trading with 2Q earnings season continuing in earnest, headlined by upbeat results from General Electric and Honeywell International, while Chipotle Mexican Grill continues to struggle. Treasuries are modestly lower ahead of a gauge of domestic manufacturing activity due out after the opening bell, as is gold, while the U.S. dollar is higher, and crude oil prices are little changed. Asian stocks finished lower amid tempered hopes of aggressive stimulus measures from the Bank of Japan, while European equities are mixed following lackluster manufacturing reports out of the region as a whole and a tumble in U.K. activity.

Tech Stocks Lead Gains

U.S. stocks advanced in the wake of some upbeat global earnings reports, headlined by Dow member Microsoft’s solid quarterly results, which aided in extending the blue-chip index’s current winning streak to nine-straight sessions. Also, Morgan Stanly added to the growing number of domestic financial companies that have bested 2Q earnings estimates. Crude oil prices reversed to the upside on the heels of a bullish U.S. inventory report. Treasuries were lower, along with gold, while the U.S. dollar was nearly unchanged.

Stocks Move Up, Down and Around the Flatline

U.S. stocks oscillated near the unchanged mark for most of Friday’s session, before ultimately finishing mixed. The pause from the recent equity run developed despite a plethora of upbeat domestic economic data, which was highlighted by an upbeat June retail sales report. Treasuries and gold were lower, while the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices were higher. In earnings news, results from Citigroup and Wells Fargo fostered some mixed reactions and the FTC settled its multi-year investigation into Herbalife.

Stocks Manage Mild Moves and Mixed Finish

U.S. stocks paused a bit from their recent rally with the major indexes closing mixed and near the flatline as a drop in crude oil prices weighed on energy issues. Investors may have been exercising some additional caution ahead of some key earnings reports out of the financial sector later this week. In economic news, the Fed released its Beige Book, mortgage applications jumped for a second-straight week and import prices rose. Treasuries and gold were higher, while the U.S. dollar was lower.

Stocks Strike Same Tune with New Records

U.S. equities closed Tuesday’s regular trading session with solid gains as the Dow and S&P 500 indexes set new intraday highs and record closes. The advance for stocks arose as 2Q earnings season unofficially commenced with Alcoa releasing results after yesterday’s closing bell. In domestic economic news, a measure of unmet demand for labor showed fewer jobs were available than expected, wholesale inventories ticked higher and a gauge of small business optimism increased more than forecasted. Higher crude oil prices helped power gains for energy issues, while the U.S. dollar and gold were lower.

Stocks Again in Record High Territory

U.S. equities are higher, adding to their recent rally that has taken the S&P 500 to all-time highs, as Alcoa unofficially kicked off 2Q earnings season by topping forecasts, while Japanese stimulus expectations remain elevated and global growth concerns continue to ease. Treasuries are falling, along with gold and the U.S. dollar, while crude oil prices are gaining solid ground. Asian stocks moved solidly higher again, with Japan adding to yesterday’s rally, while European equities are extending their jump to four sessions.

MIKA: Still not that well

Reaffirm REDUCE despite earnings upgrade At this stage, we revise up our 2016-17F earnings by 7-9% (exhibit 5) for MIKA to reflect stronger patient flows and higher margins driven by lower drug expenses, higher number of emergency cases and price increase in 2016. MIKA has implemented…

 

 

Indonesian Strategy – Brexit – Limited Impact; Buy on Weaknesses

Hi,

– Short-term weaknesses should be seen as a buying opportunity – The UK decision to exit the European Union could put pressure on both currency and equity markets in the near-term, but we believe this is temporary. The EU and UK are not significant trading partners for Indonesia. With Brexit, we could see further delay in the Fed rate hikes coupled with potentially lower interest rates in developed markets. We believe near-term strategy should include focusing on defensive stocks such as TLKM, HMSP, MIKA, ASII, JSMR and LPPF. We remain positive over the medium-term and our preference on the construction, property and infrastructure sectors remain as we believe the tax amnesty bill could be passed on 28 June and trigger positive market sentiment.

– View from our economists – Our global chief economist expects that Brexit policy response would likely include: 1) liquidity support by all major central banks; 2) the BoE cutting Bank Rate by 25bp and perhaps re-starting additional asset purchases; 3) the ECB and other central banks in Europe potentially cutting the policy rate if the FX-strengthens or inflation weakens; and 4) the Fed may delay the next hike to December or beyond. The majority of Indonesian companies have limited exposure to the UK & EU but pressure on the currency and equities could persist in the near term.

– A general assembly is scheduled for 28 June for budget and tax amnesty – We believe that there is a strong political will on both government and parliament to move forward on the tax amnesty bill and the relevant working groups in the parliament are said to have reached consensus, according to the Finance Minister, regarding the confidentiality of the tax amnesty data; coverage of immunity against tax and non-tax offenses as well as the need to incentivize repatriations with lower tax amnesty rate. The general assembly is scheduled for 28 June whereby both the amnesty bill and the 2016 revised budget are expected to be passed by parliament.

– Indonesia still offers a relatively attractive return – Despite having slowed recently, Indonesia’s economic growth is still forecast as one of the highest in the region at c.5% in 2016-17, per our Indonesia economist while the 10-year government bond yield still looks attractive at c.7.6%. As such, we believe Indonesia still offers an attractive return for foreign investors and we expect inflow into the market when the dust settles in the not too distant future.

-Maintain our positive view on the market — At a 1-year forward PER of 15.0x (13.9x ex-Sampoerna), the JCI is not cheap but nor does it look overly expensive (6-year historical mean is at 13.9x). We maintain our 5,700 target (+17%) set last November. Sector-wise, we continue to like property, construction and infra. Top picks: BBNI, BBTN, LPPF, TLKM, ASII, MIKA, PTPP, ADHI, BSDE, CTRA, PWON and JSMR. Potential catalysts for the market in the near term include: 1) Tax amnesty bill being pass by the parliament; and 2) continued delay in Fed rate hike.

Please find the link to the note.
https://www.citivelocity.com/rendition/eppublic/documentService/cGxhdGZvcm09MjgmZG9jX2lkPTY2ODAwOA

BBNI: Strong growth to stay

On track to meet FY16 targetWe remain positive on the toned down expectation in BBNI’s loan growthfollowing its strong 5M16 achievement, as an over aggressive expansioncould result in a potential downgrade in credit quality. A downwardrevision in both growth and loan quality should not alter our…

Stocks Ticking Higher Ahead of Yellen’s Testimony

U.S. stocks are modestly higher in early action, extending yesterday’s solid advance. However, new Brexit polls are preserving some uncertainty and crude oil prices are pulling back, while the global markets are awaiting today’s Congressional monetary policy testimony from Fed Chair Yellen. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar are ticking higher, with the economic calendar quiet again. Lennar Corp topped the Street’s quarterly forecasts, though Werner Enterprises issued disappointing 2Q profit guidance. Gold is trading lower. Asian stocks finished mixed, while European equities have turned mixed after their recent rally.

Rehat Akhir Pekan, IHSG Melemah Tipis

Ipotnews – Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) melemah tipis pada penutupan jeda perdagangan hari Jumat (17/6). Rehat perdagangan IHSG turun -0,04 persen (-1,86 poin) ke posisi 4.812,52.

Indeks LQ45 turun -0,2% ke posisi 818,76 poin. Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) melorot -0,1% ke posisi 656,40 poin. Indeks IDX30 turun -0,33% ke level 433,17 poin. Indeks Sri Kehati turun -0,56% ke level 277,28 poin. Indeks SM Infra 18 naik 0,04% ke level 333,25 poin. Pemodal asing net buy (beli bersih) senilai Rp20 miliar. Nilai transaksi sebesar Rp2,677 triliun dengan volume perdagangan sebanyak 2,970 miliar saham. Saham-saham yang paling aktif diperdagangkan siang ini antara lain BHIT, CTRA, KREN, ANTM, CTRP, DOID, BUMI, LMPI, ADRO dan SSMS. Nilai tukar rupiah pada Jumat (17/6 pkl 12.45 pm) siang ini menguat 0,19% pada posisi Rp13.364 per USD.

Indeks pasar saham di Asia menguat pada jeda perdagangan akhir pekan, Jumat (17/6). Pergerakan pasar saham Asia berlangsung di tengah kekhawatiran seputar keputusan bank sentral di Jepang dan AS dan hasil referendum nasib Inggris di Uni Eropa. Sentimen pelemahan bursa Wall Street USA selama 5 hari berturut-turut juga menjadi sentimen bagi Asia. Indeks ASX 200 (Australia) naik 0,24 persen. Shenzhen Composite Index naik 1,05 persen. Bank of Japan mempertahankan kebijakan moneter yang tidak berubah sesuai dengan ekspektasi para analis. Sedangkan the Fed menyatakan kenaikan suku bunga acuan akan berlangsung lebih lambat. Indeks Nikkei 225 (Jepang) menguat 1,63% (251,52 poin) ke posisi 15.685,66 poin. Indeks Hang Seng (Hong Kong) naik 0,75% (149,85 poin) ke level 20.188,27 poin. Indeks Shanghai (China) naik 0,69% (19,76 poin) ke level 2.892,58 poin. Indeks Straits Times (Singapura) naik 0,2% (6 poin) ke level 2.757 poin.

Stocks Continue to Slide

U.S. stocks are lower for the sixth-straight session in early action, with yesterday’s Fed decision being followed by unchanged policy stances out of Japan and the U.K., which are exacerbating uncertainty regarding the global monetary policy landscape. Brexit concerns continue to fester and growth worries are persisting. Treasuries are mixed and the U.S. dollar is higher, following a slight miss for U.S. headline consumer price inflation, while jobless claims jumped. Crude oil prices remain under pressure and gold is higher. Asian stocks declined, with a surge in the yen pressuring Japanese markets, while European equities are resuming their selloff.

JSMR : Memulihkan Keyakinan 

Kami berharap tidak akan ada lagi diskon tariff selama libur lebaran pada tahun ini, sehingga hal ini akan mengembalikan kepercayaan pasar terhadap JSMR, seiring persepsi akan intervensi pemerintah terhadap tariff akan menghilang. Oleh karena itu, persepsi yang lebih baik akan meningkatkan valuasi JSMR…

 

ROTI: Freshly Baked 

ROTI mencatat pertumbuhan penjualan dalam 5 tahun sebesar +27,9% CAGR dengan pertumbuhan laba bersih +23,5% CAGR. Dengan pertumbuhan retail yang meluas di Indonesia, kami meyakini ROTI masih memiliki ruang besar untuk tumbuh. Pada tahun ini, ROTI berencana untuk melakukan penetrasi ke general distribution (GT) seperti…

 

Stocks Close Near Lows

U.S. stocks began the trading week lower on the heels of broad-based drops in Asia and Europe as global sentiment remained stymied by festering growth concerns. Traders may have been exercising additional caution with several high profile central bank decisions scheduled for this week and a vote regarding whether the U.K. should leave the European Union fast approaching. Treasuries and gold were higher and the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices were lower. In equity news, Microsoft agreed to acquire LinkedIn.

Proposed budget revision

Stay positiveWe are not concerned that the potential 2016 budget cuts will havesignificant impact on construction companies as government projectsaccount for only ~30% of total order book. In 2015 even though thegovernment’s revenues were ~15% lower than expected, total order bookof ADHI, PTPP, WIKA and WSKT grew by more…

 

Equities Lose Steam in Final Minutes

After spending most of the day in the green, U.S. equities finished the session mixed, with the sustained rise in crude oil prices giving energy issues a boost. However, healthcare issues were a drag amid lowered guidance from Valeant Pharmaceuticals and disappointing trial results from Biogen. Treasuries were higher, while the U.S. dollar was flat and gold lost ground.

PGAS: Low On Gas

Refuelling urgency
We initiate coverage of PGAS with a SELL and DCF TP of IDR1,900 (WACC 8.58%, LTG 3%), implying 8.1x FY17E P/E. This is a 46% discount to its 5- year P/E mean of 15.1x. We see de-rating catalysts from: 1) a weak volume recovery expected in 2016; 2) upstream diversification and supply risks; and 3) regulatory uncertainties.

Market sees volume recovery, not us
PGAS’ gas volume was down 7.3% YoY in 2015. This was in part caused by slower industrial demand as the economy slowed from 5.0% growth in 2014 to 4.79% in 2015 and in part, by lower gas usage by PGAS’ main customer. We believe gas is slowly losing its price advantage after oil prices declined and that PLN may be tilted towards building more coalfired than gas-fired power plants. Still-sluggish industrial demand and the development of more coal power plants are behind our paltry forecasts of 1-3% YoY growth for PGAS’ sales volume for 2016-18.

Supply risks; untimely diversification
PGAS’ contracts with Santos, Pertamina and Conoco-Philips – its main gas suppliers – will end in 2017, 2019, and 2023 respectively, at a time when these operators’ concessions for their oil and gas blocks expire. It remains unclear whether these concessions would be extended. To secure higher future supply, PGAS ventured into the upstream gas sector in 2013-14 and LNG business in 2010. As exploration to exploitation takes years, revenue accretion has been limited so far. We also think that PGAS paid undeserved premiums for its oil & gas blocks, as oil prices soon collapsed and Indonesia’s economy slowed down.

Regulatory overhang
Pressure from industrial users prompted the government to cut gas selling prices in North Sumatera by USD1.64/Mmbtu at end-2015. This may be followed by more price cuts in Java – a risk we do not rule out.

MIDI: Target belanja modal IDR900miliar untuk penambahan 225 gerai baru tahun ini

• Dikutip dari Bisnis Indonesia, Midi Utama Indonesia ($MIDI) menargetkan belanja modal IDR900miliar untuk penambahan 225 gerai di tahun ini.
• Menurut Santopo, Direktur MIDI, melemahnya laju pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional tidak mengurangi kec…

KIJA: Menyiapkan belanja modal IDR350b untuk akuisisi lahan di Kendal

• Dikutip Bisnis Indonesia, Kawasan Industri Jababeka ($KIJA), menyiapkan belanja modal sebesar IDR350miliar, untuk akusisi lahan di Kendal• Menurut Direktur Utama KIJA, Budianto Liman, Direktur Utama Jababeka, permintaan lahan di industry di Kend…

Plain cigarette packaging to put smokers off

Plain cigarette packaging to put smokers off. The Health Ministry is pushing for plain packaging on all cigarettes sold in Indonesia to reduce the alarmingly high smoking rate. Comment: Indonesia is a late-comer in terms of regulation on cigs with warnings pictorials only introduced in 2014. However, the trend is clear that Indonesia will follow….

AGENDA EMITEN & EKONOMI : 30 Mei

 

30 Mei- CumDate RightIssue AALI  4:1  Exc.Price @Rp.- CumDate Deviden MAYA Rp.23- CumDate Deviden MTLA Rp.3,2- RUPS : COWL, HEXA, OCAP- PublicExpose : KBLM, SIPD -Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. and markets are closed; U.K. markets are closed for the Spring bank holiday.-CENTRAL BANKS: Greece….

Asia Dibuka Mixed, Aksi Ambil Untung Intai Potensi Laju IHSG

Ipotnews – Awal pekan ini, di penghujung Mei, (30/5) bursa saham Asia dibuka bervariasi di tengah tren penguatan nilai tukar dolar AS, pasca pernyataan pimpinan The Fed Janet Yellen akhir pekan lalu, yang mendukung kenaikan suku bunga pada bulan-bulan mendatang….

Periksa Kesehatan Emiten Farmasi

 

Harian Kontan memberitakan, Nilai tukar rupiah yang sedang melemah menjadi kabar buruk bagi emiten sektor farmasi. Padahal, kinerja sektor ini tengah terkerek program Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN).

Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) dalam riset mengungkapkan, pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah berpengaruh kuat bagi kinerja sektor farmasi. Sebab 90% bahan baku industri masih impor. Sebenarnya, emiten sektor farmasi mulai berupaya mengurangi ketergantungan bahan baku impor lewat pembangunan pabrik-pabrik baru yang membikin bahan baku obat. Tapi, hasilnya diperkirakan baru tampak mulai tahun depan.

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Stocks Pull Back From Highs Following Fed Minutes

U.S. stocks finished the trading session mostly flat as mild gains evaporated on the heels of the afternoon release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent monetary policy meeting, which showed the Central Bank hadn’t ruled out the possibility of a June rate hike. Treasuries, gold and crude oil prices were lower, while the U.S. dollar was higher. In equity news, pressure persisted on the retail sector following the release of Target’s quarterly earnings report which revealed disappointing sales and a softer-than-expected 2Q profit outlook.

Equities Mixed Amid Fed Focus

Domestic stocks are mixed with financials rising on resurfaced Fed rate hike expectations as recent hawkish Fed commentary preceded today’s policy meeting minutes. Crude oil prices are volatile in the wake of an unexpected rise in U.S. oil inventories. Pressure persists on the retail sector following Target Corp’s disappointing sales and outlook. Treasuries are lower and the U.S. dollar is higher, while gold is losing ground. Asian stocks finished mostly lower despite an upbeat Japanese GDP report, while European equities have turned higher.

Tax Amnesty Bisa Keluarkan Indeks dari Boring Market

Investor Daily memberitakan Pemerintah sebaiknya mempercepat penerapan pengampunan pajak (tax amnesty) untuk meningkatkan aliran dana ke pasar modal dan investasi langsung di Indonesia. Kepala Riset Daewoo Taye Shim mengatakan, tax amnesty dibutuhkan untuk membawa pasar modal ke luar dari kejenuhan…

PGAS holds off acquisition plans

PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) is holding off its plans to acquire oil & gas blocks this year and decided to focus on production development. President Director Hendi Prio Santoso stated that the company’s subsidiary, PT Saka Energi, will focus on developing existing blocks to commence production….

BI Rate Outlook – Remains unchanged, amid declining inflation pressures

·         Indonesian Economy slowed to 4.92% y-o-y in 1Q 2016 compared 5.04% y-o-y in 4Q 2015, but increased compared to 1Q 2015 which grew only 4.73% y-o-y. On the expenditure side, the economic slowdown in 1Q 2016 was caused by the weak…

April 2W down 15.1% MoM

· 2W sales in April were 478,036 units, down 15.1% MoM and -8.9% YoY due to overall weak demand. The MoM decline was also due to inventory sell downs by all 2W producers.

· YTD 2W sales reached 1,982,504 units, down 6.9% YoY and slightly behind (~31%) target of 6.5m units for this year.

· We expect 2W sales to start recovery before fasting month starts in July. We might see stronger sales in 2H as the impact of easing monetary policy starts to kick in.

 

April 4W wholesale -9.9% MoM, but Astra market share +7%

· 4W sales in April reached 84,685 units down 9.9% MoM and but 3.8% YoY.

· YTD 4W sales were 351,911 units, down 3.3% YoY and ~32% of our full-year forecast of 1,100,000 units.

· Despite the MoM decline in industry wholesale figure in April, Astra’s sales were up 2.5% MoM increasing its market share by 7% MoM to 56%.

· The main reason for the Astra’s market-share increase in April was because of inventory sell-down, especially by Honda. It looked like to us that Honda was too confident in the recovery in the retail sales, which were not seen in April. Due to the high inventory, our quick channel checks suggest that one can get discount of ~IDR25m for the Honda Mobilio model. The HRV model, which looked very strong in terms of demand (customers used to wait for 3-4 month), now is ready stock with improved features in accessories (bigger screen size for car tape) and also discount of ~IDR10m.

· We forecast recovery to start in May when we approach fasting month and Hari Raya.

Bank Mandiri – Cut TP on lingering NPL

We lower our 2016-17F EPS by -10% due to BMRI’s lower than expected 1Q16 profit of IDR3.8t (-26% YoY). Accordingly, our GGM-based TP is reduced by 2.5% to IDR8,000, still pegged to 1.4x FY16 P/BV, but on a slightly lower ROE. We have also taken into account a prolonged NPL issue, and the weaker loan growth…

Indofood 1Q growth was strong (ICBP EBIT 32% y/y growth), sustainability is questionable but at least will be better than last year

Indofood 1Q growth was strong (ICBP EBIT 32% y/y growth), sustainability is questionable but at least will be better than last year; Wage increase (10-12%) tops inflation (5%); Jan to Mar saw an uptrend, No numbers released for April. Sales contribution:66% noodles, 19% dairy, 6% snacks, 2% food seasonings, and rest are nutrition & special food…