Archive Tag:VIVA

Media: Drama Fever Drives Audience Share

Media Nusantara was the top gainer in prime time audience share in Nov 2015 (+18% MoM), driven by its RCTI station (+33% MoM). Surya Citra’s audience share in prime time declined by 4% in November, but it has been able to maintain its first position in non-prime time audience share, thanks to Indosiar TV station (+8% MoM). We maintain our BUY call on Surya Citra and NEUTRAL call on Media Nusantara.
..Media Nusantara’s prime time audience share improves. Based on Nielsen data, Media Nusantara’s (MNCN IJ, NEUTRAL, TP: IDR1,850) prime time audience share improved in November while those of other media groups diminished. Media Nusantara’s prime time audience share grew 18% MoM to 40.9% during the month, supported by Rajawali Citra Televisi Indonesia (RCTI), which saw its prime time audience share (+33% MoM) boosted by its new programme line-up like “Anak Jalanan”. This new drama has managed to beat Surya Citra Televisi’s (SCTV) new drama “Ganteng Ganteng Serigala” during prime time. In addition, RCTI’s other TV dramas like “Tukang Bubur Naik Haji” and “Perempuan Di Pinggir Jalan” managed to score good ratings in Nielsen’s top 10 programmes in November. Media Nusantara’s other TV stations such as MNCTV also saw prime time audience share improve by 2% MoM during the month. Meanwhile, Global TV’s prime time audience share dropped by 8% MoM in NovemberLikely minimal impact from 50% tax reduction.
¨ Surya Citra’s prime time audience share supported by Indosiar. Surya Citra Media’s (Surya Citra) (SCMA IJ, BUY, TP: IDR3,300) prime time audience share was buoyed by Indosiar TV station, which saw a 4% MoM improvement driven by its new TV shows like “D’Academy Asia”. Meanwhile, SCTV’s audience share dropped by 12% MoM, as its drama TV series like “Pangeran” and “Ganteng Ganteng Serigala” faced deteriorating popularity in prime time. This resulted in Surya Citra’s prime time audience share declining by 4% MoM to 31.6%.
¨ Surya Citra dominates non-prime time audience share. Surya Citra has succesfully improved its non-prime time audience share in November, up 4% MoM to 30.2%. This was due to Indosiar’s strong performance with its non-prime time audience share jumping 8% MoM to 14.1%, thanks to its TV shows like “Stand Up Comedy Academy” which now airs in non-prime time. In our opinion, Surya Citra has managed to capture the audience share from Trans Corp, which saw its non-prime time audience share falling by 7% MoM to 17.5%.
¨ Competition in audience share getting fierce. We believe Media Nusantara’s rising audience share could lead to an improvement in its rate card. However, it remains to be seen if the improvement is sustainable in the long term, as competition for prime time audience share is getting fierce, with SCTV and RCTI fighting to get the first position.

TV Guide-Nov 15: It’s All About the Drama

 The odds seem to be on MNCN’s favor in November as its all-time share jumped by 260bps MoM thanks to RCTI’s
primetime dramas. Indosiar managed to keep SCMA steady with its new regional music talent show “D’Academy Asia”
and comedy talent show “Stand Up Comedy Academy”. Both VIVA‘s and Trans’s shares fell MoM in November.
 MNCN tops the November all-time audience shares. MNCN was the winner in the all-time audience share performance
in November as the company’s share jumped by 260bps MoM to 36.0% thanks to RCTI. SCMA’s share remained flat at
30.4%. Meanwhile, both VIVA and Trans showed negative growths of 100bps and 120bps MoM respectively. Trans
remained in third place at 15.3%, while VIVA is at the bottom of the rank at 14.6%.
 Spotlight on RCTI’s primetime dramas. MNCN’s primetime audience share soared by 620bps MoM to 40.9% thanks to
RCTI, whose share alone spiked by 650bps MoM. RCTI’s primetime drama “Anak Jalanan” managed to bring the network’s
audience share to the top. The drama did so well and managed to record TV rating of up to 8.0 beating SCTV’s “Ganteng
Ganteng Serigala” during its prime when it used to score TV rating of about 6.0-7.0. RCTI’s other dramas “Tukang Bubur
Naik Haji” and “Perempuan Di Pinggir Jalan” also scored very well in TV Ratings and consistently stayed on the top 10
programs during the month. Meanwhile, MNC TV managed to show share increase of 20bps MoM, while Global TV’s share
fell by 50bps MoM.
 MNCN ate up most of the primetime audience shares. As MNCN’s primetime share spiked, the other groups’ shares
diminished. SCMA’s primetime share fell by 130bps MoM to 31.6% mainly due to SCTV, whose share fell by 200bps MoM.
Indosiar’s primetime share stayed strong and grew by 70bps MoM due to the start of “D’Academy Asia”, the regional
version of Indosiar’s hit talent show “D’Academy” which brings in participants from Singapore, Malaysia, and Brunei.
VIVA’s share was hit bad and fell by 330bps MoM to 12.5%. ANTV alone fell by 250bps MoM. We suspect SCTV’s and
ANTV’s primetime shares were eaten by RCTI. Trans’ share fell by 150bps MoM to 11.1%.
 Indosiar kept SCMA strong during non-primetime. On the non-primetime side, SCMA is the winner with a MoM
audience share growth of 130bps to 30.2%. SCTV’s share remained flat with 20bps MoM growth. Indosiar’s share again
was the one with the stronger growth of 110bps MoM. We suspect this is due to “Stand Up Comedy Academy”, which
now airs on non-primetime hours. VIVA was the other company who booked positive MoM non-primetime audience
share growth. The company’s share rose by 20bps MoM to 15.8%.
 Trans slid in non-primetime. MNCN’s non-primetime share fell by 20bps MoM to 32.4%. Both RCTI and Global TV
showed declining shares by 40bps and 50bps MoM respectively. However, MNC TV’s share rose by 70bps MoM, which we
suspect is due to its children programs. Meanwhile, Trans’ share fell by 130bps MoM to 17.5%. The decline is mainly due
to Trans7, whose share fell by 90bps MoM.

Media: New Shows Pay Off

Trans Corp was the top gainer in all time audience share in September (+4% MoM) due to its Trans7 station, which managed to improve the group’s performance. Surya Citra’s audience share rose 2% MoM, supported by Indosiar’s new TV and sports shows. MNC was the only one that booked lower audience share (-4% MoM), due to a lack of new programmes. We maintain our BUY call on Surya Citra with TP of IDR3,300 and NEUTRAL call on Media Nusantara, with IDR2,100 TP.
¨ Nielsen data show improvement in all time audience shares by Surya Citra Media (Surya Citra) (SCMA) and Trans Corp. The two companies successfully improved their all time audience share ratings in September. Surya Citra’s share grew 2% MoM to 29.2% while Trans Corp’s share rose 4% MoM to 17.1%. Audience share improvements were attributed to new TV series and shows introduced. Media Nusantara Citra (MNC) (MNCN) failed to improve on its performance during this time. MNC’s all time audience share fell by 4% MoM to 32.6% – we suspect its absence of new programmes led to the slowdown. The company has been re-running old TV series like Preman Pensiun, rather than investing in new programmes. The Bakrie Group’s Visi Media Asia’s (Visi Media) (VIVA) all time audience share was flat MoM at 16.8% (Figure 2).
¨ Successful new programmes take Indosiar to the prime time top spot. Indosiar introduced Bintang Pantura as a second line-up for D’Academy. With this new show, the station has managed to take Surya Citra to top spot in terms of prime time audience share – growing 6% MoM to 12.2%. At the same time, the group’s Suria Citra Televisi (SCTV) station’s share grew 2% MoM to 17.8%, due to the Pangeran sinetrons that were well accepted by viewers. In September, MNC’s prime time audience share slipped again, down 5% MoM to 33.7%. Rajawali Citra Televisi Indonesia’s (RCTI) and Global TV’s prime time audience shares fell the most in this month, by 3%/10% to 17.6%/6.4% respectively. We believe that SCTV and Indosiar have successfully taken audience share from these two stations.
¨ Trans7 is the gainer in terms of non-prime time audience share. Trans7 was once again the top gainer in terms of non-prime time audience share, up 4% MoM to 9.3%. This improvement was backed by its MotoGP TV broadcasts. Indosiar continues to support Surya Citra’s non-prime time audience share, which grew 4% MoM to 11.7% during this timeframe. This rise was backed by the popularity of sport programmes like Piala Presiden and the Barclays Premier League.
¨ Positive impact to Surya Citra. We believe the improvement in Surya Citra’s audience share performance could lead to better ad revenue performance in 2H15. Similarly, the slip in Media Nusantara’s audience share could mean muted ad revenue growth in 2H15.

Media: TV Guide-Aug 15: Back to Normal

 Trans was the big winner of the August 2015 audience share data, showing positive growth in both primetime and nonprimetime.
SCMA also won big time in primetime thanks to SCTV’s new primetime drama “Pangeran”. Meanwhile, the
end of the fasting month and school holiday seems to hit MNCN’s all-time share last month.
 Trans and SCMA showed positive all-time share growths. The August 2015 all-time audience share data indicated
Trans and SCMA to be the big winners of the month. Albeit booking the lowest audience share of 16.4%, Trans’s share
grew by 190bps MoM due to its strong performance during non-primetime. SCMA meanwhile booked a share of 28.6%,
indicating MoM growth of 70bps. MNCN’s share tumbled by 230bps MoM to 33.9%, while VIVA’s fell by 30bps MoM to

 A big win for SCMA on primetime. SCMA won big time in primetime, booking an audience share of 29.0%, implying
410bps MoM growth. SCTV alone showed share growth of 270bps thanks to new primetime drama “Pangeran” and ongoing
drama “Madun”. Meanwhile, the talent show “Bintang Pantura 2” managed to boost Indosiar’s primetime share by
140bps MoM. Another group showing positive growth is Trans with 30bps MoM.
 End of festive season cuts down MNCN’s primetime share. MNCN’s primetime share tumbled by 210bps MoM to
35.5%. We suspect the end of the fasting month caused RCTI’s share to fall by 160bps MoM aside from it having been
eaten by SCTV. Meanwhile, the end of the school holiday also cut down Global TV’s share by 70bps MoM. Likewise, VIVA’s
primetime share also fell by 210bps MoM to 17.2%. ANTV’s share fell by 150bps MoM, which we also suspect was eaten by

 A big non-primetime rebound from Trans. Trans rebounded strongly by 290bps MoM in non-primetime post fasting
season, booking a share of 17.7%. Trans7’s programs such as “On The Spot” and “Moto GP”, in our view, were the
audience share boosters of the month. VIVA’s non-primetime share also showed positive growth of 30bps MoM thanks to
TV One.

 Negative non-primetime growth from MNCN and SCMA. MNCN’s non-primetime audience share fell by 270bps MoM,
mostly due to RCTI, which recorded a share decline of 290bps MoM alone. We suspect the end of the fasting month and
the school holiday to be the cause of the audience share decline. MNCN’s non-primetime share was recorded at 33.1%.
Meanwhile, SCMA’s non-primetime share also posted negative growth, declining by 70bps MoM to 28.4%. Despite having
strong rating programs such as “Elif”, SCTV’s non-primetime share fell by 160bps MoM. However, Indosiar’s share grew by
90bps MoM.

The Indonesian Broadcasting Commission, recommended that a number of private broadcasters not be awarded extensions of their licenses, citing a surplus of low-quality programs offered by the stations

The Indonesian Broadcasting Commission, recommended that a number of private broadcasters not be awarded extensions of their licenses, citing a surplus of low-quality programs offered by the stations. The Commission conducted a viewer satisfaction survey of 810 respondents throughout the archipelago, and found that the quality of offered programs earned an index rating of 3.25. The threshold to prolong licenses requires a satisfaction rating of at least 4.00. 10 stations were given one year to improve the quality of their programs, or they will not be recommended an extension. The 10 stations are: RCTI, Global TV, MNC TV, Indosiar, SCTV, Metro TV, TV One, ANTV, Trans TV, and Trans 7.

Media: KPI demands program improvements for broadcast license extension

Dikutip dari Bisnis Indonesia bahwa Komite Penyiaran Indonesia (KPI) sedang mempertimbangkan tidak memberikan perpanjangan rekomendasi izin siaran ke sejumlah stasiun TV, mengikuti indeks kualitas program yang rendah.

KPI telah melakukan survei di 9 kota di Indonesia dan mendapat indeks kualitas program 3,25, yang lebih rendah dari komite standar minimum 4,00. Indeks ini akan digunakan oleh KPI dan Kementerian Komunikasi dan Informatika sebagai dasar untuk memperpanjang lisensi.

Sejak 10 stasiun TV FTA perlu memperbaharui lisensi mereka tahun depan, mereka diminta untuk meningkatkan program yang ditayangkan di saluran mereka untuk lebih mendidik dan informatif. KPI secara khusus menyatakan bahwa tiga jenis program yang mencetak kualitas terburuk adalah Sinetron (Drama), Infotainment, dan Variety show. Panitia meminta agar iklan tidak akan ditayangkan selama tiga program.

Kami percaya bahwa permintaan akan sulit untuk diterapkan dan stasiun TV tidak akan menerimanya. Drama dan Variety show adalah program primetime khas dan memberikan kontribusi setidaknya 50% untuk sebagian besar pendapatan iklan stasiun TV.

Dengan demikian, jika perusahaan media membatasi iklan selama waktu siaran program akan sangat memukul mereka, termasuk RCTI & MNCTV (MNCN), SCTV & Indosiar (SCMA), serta ANTV (VIVA). Kami akan memantau situasi ini lebih lanjut.

SCMA: Growing below industry

§ Slow growth to persist on competition and subdued TV ad spend: On rising contribution from other media and competition from the likes of Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN) and Visi Media Asia (VIVA), SCMA’s revenue growth has been below industry (exhibit 9), causing a weak 1.8% y-y fall in 4Q14. This brought 2014 revenue to IDR4.1tn (up only 9.8% y-y) on less ad spends from FMCG companies, a main revenue contributor. In 2015, we expect revenue growth to stay relatively unchanged over 2014’s level at 9.7% y-y (management’s guidance: 9-11% y-y), as we expect FMCG companies to allocate most of their ad budget spending to more effective and cheaper advertising alternatives such as online media and direct marketing to improve margins.

§ 4Q14 higher margin should be short-lived on audience share loss: In 4Q14, SCMA stripped off its expensive programs, which led to gross-margin improvement to 62.7%, from 57.9% in 3Q14. However, the trade-off for the improvement was lower audience share at SCTV (exhibit 10). The Indosiar (IVM) audience share rose due to the start of season 2 of the network’s reality show “D’Academy,” and we expect the show’s program costs to be lower than those for the drama series that SCTV usually broadcasts. However, we believe relatively flat ad spends and tightening competition ahead will force media companies to produce improved content in an effort to prop up their market shares. This move is likely to lead to higher programming costs, in our view. Hence, we forecast SCMA’s gross margin to be slightly eroded to 63.1% in 2015 (2014: 63.5%).

Outlook: Weak with management revising down growth target
IDR depreciation has adversely impacted profitability of SCMA’s advertisers, particularly FMCG companies, which are seeing margin pressure. To mitigate this condition, advertisers are focusing on how to save costs by cutting their ad spend budgets and moving away to cheaper alternative advertising media such as on-line and direct marketing, which they believe to be more effective. Additionally, FDI in the FMCG sector, one of its main revenue drivers, has yet to materialize. Furthermore, the timeframe to start a new FMCG business could take up to two years to establish. Hence, due to these unsupportive catalysts, we expect SMCA’s 2015 revenue growth to be relatively modest on a y-y basis, at 9.7%, in line with the company’s expectation of 9-11% y-y.

Recommendation: Maintain REDUCE despite higher TP of IDR2,650
SCMA’s 2015F PE of 30x is expensive, at a 24% premium to regional peers (exhibit 7), especially in light of still-weak growth catalysts and 2015F EPS growth of less than 11%, despite having fine-tuned our numbers following the release of the company’s FY14 results (exhibit 5). Hence, we think that SCMA’s ytd double-digit market underperformance is likely to persist going forward. Our new 12-month TP of IDR2,650 (previously IDR2,360) is based on 24x 2015F PER, at par with its regional peers (exhibit 7). With 20% potential downside to our new TP, SCMA remains firmly a REDUCE. Risks to our call include higher-than-expected GDP growth and FDI into the FMCG sector.

BERITA EMITEN 26 March 2015

• COAL : Harga Batu Bara: Kembali memasuki pola reli (bisnis)

• ACST: Acset Indonesia dapat pinjaman Rp60 miliar dari pemegang saham (IQPlus)

• AGRO: BRI AGRO alokasikan 10% laba 2014 untuk dividen (IQPLus)

• APLN: APLN catatkan Obligasi Berkelanjutan Rp99 miliar • (IQPlus)

• BEST: BEST tanam US$ 20 juta untuk hotel dan perkantoran (kontan)

• BIRD: Laba Blue Bird capai Rp735,11 miliar pada 2014 (IQPlus) (+3,89%)

• BRAU: Bayar utang, BRAU alokasikan dana US$ 118 juta (kontan)


• KLBF: Kalbe lakukan pemeriksaan ulang terhadap semua produk injeksi (IQPlus)

• PWON: Melonjak 122%, Pakuwon Jati (PWON) cetak laba Rp2,5 triliun (bisnis)

• TBLA: Meroket 413%, Tunas Baru Lampung (TBLA) cetak laba Rp433,9 miliar (bisnis)

•           VIVA: pendapatan +34.5%, laba +34%

TV Guide-Feb15: Take Back the Spotlight

Although MNCN is still number one in terms of all-time audience shares, SCMA made a strong come-back in February as the latter company’s all-time shares grew by 310bps MoM. Indosiar alone recorded audience shares growth of 510bps MoM in February as it started to air the second season of “D’Academy” Dangdut music competition. VIVA remained defensive thanks to ANTV’s strong Indian dramas’ performance.

Top place MNCN, Top performer SCMA. February has proven to be another strong month for MNCN as the group ranked top place in terms of all-time audience shares with a figure of 33.2% (-140bps MoM). However, SCMA showed the strongest improvement with 28.9% audience shares (+310bps MoM) thanks to Indosiar. Meanwhile, VIVA remained flat at 16.3% all-time shares and Trans fell by 120bps MoM to 17.4%.

SCMA made a come-back in primetime. SCMA was the clear top performer of primetime audience shares as the group recorded 32.9% shares, beating MNCN at 31.8%. Albeit SCTV’s primetime shares declined by 300bps MoM, Indosiar’s shares spiked by 940bps MoM. The shares concluded that the second season of “D’Academy” was still a hit following its strong first season last year. We believe that Indosiar might have also taken over some audience from SCTV; thus, explaining the fall in shares from the latter network. In our view, Indosiar’s audience shares will continue to remain strong for the next two months as “D’Academy” still airs.

Indosiar ate up competitors’ primetime shares. We suspect that Indosiar ate up audience shares from RCTI and Trans TV as the two networks’ shares fell by 280bps and 110bps respectively MoM. MNCN’s primetime shares fell by 300bps MoM in February, while Trans’s fell by 200bps. VIVA’s primetime share fell by 80bps MoM. However, ANTV remained defensive at third place with its share growth of 50bps thanks to its strong Indian dramas.

SCMA also performed the best in non-primetime. MNCN managed to stay on the top in non-primetime with audience shares of 34.2%, relatively flat. SCMA, once again, was the strong contender with audience shares growth of 140bps MoM to 26.8%. Indosiar’s re-airing of “D’Academy”, as well as sporting programs, are what we believe to be the reason for the growth. Though its shares fell by 140bps, SCTV was still the top non-primetime network.

TV One dragged down’s VIVA’s non-primetime. VIVA’s non-primetime shares fell by 140bps mostly due to TV One’s share decline last month. VIVA ranked fourth at 16.0% non-primetime shares. Meanwhile, Trans recorded non-primetime shares of 18.9% and ranked third.

Indonesian Media – Time to Shake It Off as Indosiar’s D’Academy Is Back

-Feb 2015 Audience Shares: Strong rebound for SCMA thanks to Indosiar – Summary of February month-on-month audience shares performance: All-Time: #1 MNCN -1.4pts (33.2%), #2 SCMA +3.1pts (28.9%), #3 VIVA -1.2pts (17.4%), #4 Trans Group -0.2pts (16.3%). Prime-Time: #1 SCMA +6.4pts (32.9%), #2 MNCN -3pts (31.8%), #3 VIVA -0.8pts (20.2%), #4 Trans Group -2pts (11.5%). See pg2-3 for audience shares table and charts, and pg4-5 for top 10 ratings daily TV shows.

-Prime-Time commentaries: Indosiar ranked 1st as D’Academy took spotlight – As we anticipated, new seasonality for Indosiar has officially been formed; a much stronger 1H vs. 2H on the back of music idol show “D’Academy” which airs from Feb-Mar annually starting from last year. Indosiar’s PT audience shares jumped to a remarkable 19.7% in Feb-15 (vs. 10.3% in Jan-15 and 14.7% in Feb-14) as D’Academy s2 came back on air starting 5 Feb and expected to last until end of May. Indosiar’s strong performance more than offsets SCTV’s weak act (tiger wolf drama now outside top 5 dailies) of -3pts MoM in Feb at 13.2% (ranked 4th below Indosiar, RCTI, and ANTV); placing SCMA at overall +6.4pts MoM in Feb at 32.9%. MNCN lost quite significant shares in PT with RCTI -2.8pts (18%), and GlobalTV -0.9pts (8.6%), but slightly helped by MNC TV +0.7pts (8.6%). VIVA also lost a bit of market shares with TV One down -1.3pts (2.9%) but with ANTV still growing strong at +0.7pts (17.3%) as Indian drama “Jodha Akbar” still steadily stood within top 3 daily shows. Indosiar’s D’Academy practically cannibalized most of the local drama audience from both SCTV and RCTI during the prime time slots (6pm-10:30pm).

-All-Time commentaries: MNCN still #1 as more stability seen on MNC TV – MNCN #1 at 33.2% down -3pts: coming from 1) RCTI -1.2pts (cannibalized by D’Academy), 2) MNC TV +0.3pts (solid support from cartoons), 3) Global TV -0.5pts. SCMA #2 at 28.9% up +3.1pts: coming from 1) SCTV -2pts (cannibalized by D’Academy) and 2) Indosiar +5.1pts (thanks to D’Academy!). VIVA #3 at 17.4% down -1.2pts: coming from 1) ANTV +0.1pts and 2) TV One -1.3pts. It is interesting to highlight that MNC TV is now stable at >12% audience shares in the past 3 mths (vs. 9.6% in FY14, 10.9% in FY13, and 13.8% in FY12) amid solid cartoon lineups in afternoon time and early prime time (Adit & Sopo Jarwo, Boboi Boy, Upin Ipin).

-Bullish FTA TV (SCMA, MNCN, VIVA – Buy ratings for all three) especially with deflation trends continued in February; SCMA top pick at Rp4200 TP (18% upside) – February saw monthly deflation at -0.36% MoM. CPI Inflation YoY thus dropped to 6.3% in Feb (vs. 7% in Jan and 6.7% of Citi Econ/Cons forecasts). This is in line with our deflation thesis on the back of January’s multiple fuel price cuts. We believe consumer purchasing power will rebound in 2Q15 eventually bringing back Ad Spend. SCMA is our top pick on solid governance, Indosiar’s strong growth profile, and sector high margin (50% ROE).

Indonesian Media: Policy risk: Non-compliance with Broadcasting Law

§ Possible TV station limitation based on the Broadcasting Law: With the Jokowi administration fixated on proper licensing (ie, from aviation to the retail sector), we believe that the Indonesian media companies could be at risk as they are not in compliance with the current Broadcasting Law. Based on our conversation with the Indonesian Broadcasting Commission (KPI), it is possible that the Broadcasting Law could be more stringently applied going forward, adversely impacting both MNCN and SCMA in our media universe. Note that in October 2012, the Independent Committee for Broadcasting Democratization (KIDP) had requested the Constitutional Court to review media companies’ compliance on Law No.32/2002, Article 18 clause 1 and Article 34 clause 4 on broadcasting (exhibit 5). At that time, the Constitutional Court required the Government to further observe ownership limitations of non-government-owned media companies.
§ Media independency undermined: According to industry experts that we talked to, the spirit of the Indonesian Broadcasting Law is to ensure the independency and neutrality of media companies in spreading information. Additionally, anti-monopoly is also part of the essence of the law, particularly given the sensitive and influential nature of the industry. It is worth noting that most of the Indonesian national free-to-air (FTA) TV stations are owned or controlled by conglomerates with political exposure (exhibit 8). During the quiet period in the 2014 elections, the KPI had warned various TV stations for still continuing to broadcast politically-related news to benefit certain presidential candidates. We note that “media democracy” is strictly adhered in more developed countries.

Outlook: Possible subsidiary spin-off requirement
§ Negative for media companies: With broadcasting companies not in compliance with Government Regulation No.50/2005 (exhibit 6) on single individual/entity limitation ownership, we see the potential that this issue could be once again raised by the KIDP. Currently, individuals or entities controlled by conglomerates with political interests, could own more than one TV-broadcasting company and license. Three of the listed media companies are not in compliance with the current Broadcasting Law (exhibit 8). Additionally, two (ie, MNCN and VIVA) of the three listed media companies’ key persons have political exposure. As such, disciplinary measures by the government on the Broadcasting Law could result in the forced spin off of the various media companies’ subsidiaries as stipulated in Government regulation No.50/2005 Article 32.

Most negative for MNCN: Following government regulation No.50/2005 Article 32, MNCN is not in compliance by having 3 TV stations, in which its ownership is nearly 100%. Additionally, in Article 33 of the regulation, only single ownership by media type is allowed for each entity while MNCN owns multiple TV, radio and print-media companies. Therefore, a forced break up on these ownerships would likely have a significant impact on MNCN’s revenues, as MNCN owns 3 TV stations (vs. 2 at SCMA) (exhibit 9 & 10).

TV Guide-Dec 14: Keeping The Throne

After struggling in 2014, MNCN managed to take top place in all-time audience shares in December. The group also maintained its top place for the year in terms of all-time audience shares after facing strong competitions from SCMA and VIVA.

MNCN was the all-time star in December. MNCN’s all-time audience share continued to improve in December 2014 ranking top place at 34.1% (+170bps MoM) on the back of improving MNC TV. SCMA’s share fell by 120bps MoM to 27.8%. VIVA’s share was flat at 18.6% while Trans Group’s share fell by 60bps MoM to 15.2%. SCTV remains to be the number one network in Indonesia with 17.9% audience share.

Primetime was led by MNCN. MNCN also took top place in primetime with 31.4% audience share thanks to improvements from MNC TV as the network aired the semi-finals and the final matches of the AFF Suzuki Cup 2014. MNC TV recorded 60bps increase in audience share MoM. SCMA’s share fell to 30.7% as SCTV’s and Indosiar’s shares fell by 100bps and 30bps MoM respectively. We see that ANTV ate up SCTV’s audience share as the prior network’s Indian dramas, “Mahabharata” and “Jodha Akbar”, went up significantly in terms of ratings. Moreover, VIVA also introduced Turkish drama “King Suleiman” on ANTV, which also gained good traction. Overall, ANTV recorded an audience share of 21.0%. The Trans Group’s share remained flat at 13.1%.

MNC TV’s Improvement helped MNCN. Top performer for non-primetime is also MNCN with 35.6% audience share. MNC TV alone showed 180bps increase in shares MoM thanks to its children animation programs in the morning and late afternoon. We see MNC TV’s local cartoon “Adit & Sopo Jarwo” to be the top rated program from MNC TV. The network managed to eat up Indosiar’s share as the latter network saw 130bps decline in share MoM. SCMA recorded audience share of 26.4%. Meanwhile, VIVA and Trans recorded 17.4% and 16.3% audience shares respectively.

MNCN is still at the top in FY14 all-time shares. At the end of the year, MNCN managed to keep its throne as top place in FY14 all-time audience share with a figure of 30.9%. The share fell by 530bps YoY due to increasing competition from SCMA and VIVA. SCMA recorded FY14 share of 29.1%, an increase of 400bps YoY. VIVA’s share rose YoY by 510bps to 16.5%. Meanwhile, the Trans Group share fell by 460bps YoY to 19.1%.

SCMA took over FY14 primetime shares rank. We saw a shift in primetime as SCMA snagged top place in FY14 with 32.0% share (+950bps YoY). MNCN’s primetime share fell by 1030bps YoY to 29.7% due to competition with SCMA. VIVA showed 530bps YoY increase in primetime share to 15.6%. Trans’s FY14 primetime share fell by 520bps to 18.6%.

The World Cup helped VIVA in FY14 Non-Primetime. Non-primetime share for FY14 was led by MNCN at 31.6% followed by SCMA at 27.5%. VIVA recorded an increase in non-primetime share by 500bps to 17.0% thanks to the World Cup. Trans recorded non-primetime share of 19.3% in FY14.

External FX Borrowings Not a Risk Despite Weakening Rupiah

-USD weakening is not a significant threat (net FX loan to equity only 20%) — Indonesia is much less vulnerable to external borrowing than is the general perception. Level of borrowing is low and FX borrowing (mostly denominated in USD) is also not high. About 54 companies under our coverage have a gross FX loan and net FX loan to equity of 30% and 20%, respectively. Only 11 companies have net FX loan to equity of above 50% but more than half of these companies hedge their USD debt (see fig 2). Among the high leverage stocks with FX debt are MSKY, EXCL, ASRI, VIVA, ISAT and GIAA. Companies with net FX cash positions are ITMG, HRUM, UNTR and SSIA. In general, we believe the Indonesian companies can sustain weakening of the US dollar.

-Poultry sector faces highest risk on USD debt and large mismatch; selected retailers face USD risk on the operational front — In terms of sector, poultry sector has the most FX exposure with large mismatch between revenue and US cost. All of the poultry sector revenues are in rupiah while ~85% of the costs are in USD. Selected retailers have a lot of FX exposure on their cost with no FX/USD revenue. However, they do not have any FX debt exposure.

-Winners and losers on weaker FX on the operational front (see fig. 1) — We look at the revenue and cost composition in this case to indicate the beneficiary of weakening of the rupiah. Winners are the plantation (AALI, DSNG, LSIP), metal mining (ADRO, ITMG, PTBA, HRUM), and textile (PBRX). While on the flipside, poultry, pay TV and retailers are the main losers. Banking, AKRA, PGAS and Astra are neutral on weakening of the rupiah as the cost and revenue are well-matched.

-Three sectors account for 54% of external borrowings (see fig. 4) — Private sector external debt as a percentage of GDP only reached 19% with manufacturing at 20%, banks at 19% and mining at 16%. Manufacturing borrowing is slightly below its share in GDP (24%). Mining has mostly USD revenues (but revenues are also in rupiah) while for banks, external funding (borrowings + deposits) are only 11% of total assets. Financial sector (multi-finance, leasing and property development) accounts for 9% of borrowing.

-Largest borrowers are JV companies (see fig. 5) — Risk of external debt not rolled over is mitigated by the fact that joint venture companies have 35% of the total debt, while foreign companies have another 10% (see fig. 5). Borrowings by state-owned entities are 18% while the remaining 38% (US$47bn) is with private domestic companies.

-And more than a quarter of lenders are parent or affiliated companies — Banks account for the provision of 51% of loans, and other financial companies another 13% (see figure 6). The largest portion of debt is domiciled in Singapore.

Indonesia Media and Entertainment: Near-term slowdown in ad spend

Near-term slowdown
We now forecast Indonesian TV ad spend to grow 11%/12% in 2014/2015 from
17%/16% previously, as slowing GDP growth and the recent Rp2,000/litre fuel price
hike could put pressure on advertisers’ sales growth and profitability margins. With the
2015 budget review being conducted from December to January 2015, we do not
expect advertisers to return to the market until Q215, ahead of Ramadan.

We remain positive in the medium term
We think an ad spend recovery is likely in Q215, given the one quarter lag between ad
spend and ASP hikes; Q1 is historically the low quarter for consumer staple sales.
Although we lower our EPS estimates, the media sector’s 12-month forward PE average
is down 25% from the peak in 2014, and we believe it remains an inexpensive proxy to
the consumer staples sector at a 36% discount on a 12-month forward PE basis,
despite higher ROIC. We expect ad spend growth to recover to 16% in 2016E, based
on GDP growth rising from 5.0% to 5.8% and as competition continues in the FMCG
segment (which makes up over 50% of ad spend).

Online not a material threat to television, but it is growing fast
Our checks suggest multinational consumer companies now allocate 8-9% of their
advertising budgets to online versus the 6% total in Indonesia. We expect this shift to
continue due to rising internet and smartphone penetration, but we remain
comfortable with our 16%/13% TV ad spend growth assumptions for 2016/2017.
While we expect online to initially take share from print, we note the latter still has a
23% share of total industry ad spend, while Indonesia’s TV rate card remains among
the cheapest and most effective way to reach the mass mid- to low-income audiences.

Surya Citra remains our top pick; maintain Buy on Global Mediacom
Although Surya Citra’s (Buy; new price target of Rp4,050) decision to cut the portion of
lower-value cost-per-rating-point (CPRP) ad deals has been a setback as industry
growth was weakening, it has enabled the company to charge higher rate card prices.
This implies attractive upside as its revenue share remains 15ppt below Media
Nusantara (Neutral; new price target of Rp2,680), regardless of comparable audience
shares. We like Global Mediacom (Buy; new price target of Rp2,175) for its increasing
exposure to online advertising through subsidiary MNC Media Investment.

TV Guide-Oct 14: Wedding Bells

We saw a switch in audience shares ranking in October 2014, with MNCN taking over SCMA as number one in all-time. Top primetime performers include MNCN and VIVA . Meanwhile, one of Indonesia’s biggest weddings of the year has made Trans TV the top non-primetime performer last month.
MNCN took over the top in all-time audience shares. In October, MNCN took over the number one spot for all-time audience share at 31.9% (+120bps MoM). SCMA’s all-time audience shares fell by 370bps MoM to 27.7%, but still retained second position. VIVA recorded audience shares of 18.5%, growing by 120bps MoM. Meanwhile, the Trans Group recorded its first audience shares increase in 10 months, growing by 140bps MoM to 17.4%.
MNCN and VIVA triumphed on primetime. MNCN and VIVA showed the highest primetime shares increase. Both RCTI and Global TV showed 60bps MoM increase in primetime shares. We believe programs such as “Rising Star”, “Catatan Hati Seorang Istri”, and “Bastian Steel Bukan Cowok Biasa” helped RCTI’s primetime shares. Meanwhile, Global TV was helped by the airing of the Indonesian Super League. ANTV’s Indian dramas seem to continue to perform well, helping the network’s share to increase by 170bps MoM. Due to President Jokowi’s inauguration and the speculation of his cabinet members, we believe that there was an increase in audience share for TV One by 70bps MoM.
SCMA fell to number 2 in primetime. SCMA’s primetime audience share declined by 510bps MoM in October and slipped to number two in rank after MNCN. SCTV’s share declined by 110bps MoM partly due to its hit primetime drama “Ganteng Ganteng Serigala” being banned for 3 days by the KPI. Meanwhile, Indosiar’s share declined by 400bps MoM as it lost audience shares to peers. Indosiar’s “Mamamia” also did not seem to perform well, which we suspect was due to tough competition from RCTI’s “Rising Star”. On average, SCTV is still the number one primetime network YTD.
Trans Group improved the most in non-primetime. In October, the highest non-primetime audience share growth was recorded by the Trans Group which grew by 130bps MoM. Trans TV alone grew by 140bps Mom during non-primetime due to the airing of Indonesia’s top entertainer Raffi Ahmad’s wedding. The wedding took place for 2 weekends in both Jakarta and Bali. Trans TV broadcasted the whole wedding event and even got a warning letter from the KPI due to the excessive broadcasting.
MNCN remained the top non-primetime player. MNCN recorded the second highest non-primetime growth of 110bps MoM to 32.1%. RCTI showed the second highest MoM share growth of 80bps due to the AFC U-19 soccer tournament as well as the broadcast of Raffi Ahmad’s wedding. SCMA’s shares declined by 270bps to 26.4%, while VIVA’s shares rose by 60bps MoM to 17.7%.

Laba Bersih 3Q 2014 VIVA Meroket  

Laporan keuangan PT Visi Media Asia Tbk. (VIVA) menorehkan hasil yang cemerlang. Selama sembilan bulan tahun 2014 ini, VIVA berhail meraup laba bersih Rp.130,7 milyar naik 483,5% dibandingkan laba bersih periode yang sama tahun lalu yang hanya meraup Rp.22,4 milyar.
Pendapatan usaha yang diperoleh VIVA naik 53,9% menjadi 1,75 trilyun rupiah dari pendapatan  usaha periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar 1,13 trilyun rupiah.
Akan tetapi, hal tersebut dibarengi beban usaha yang juga meningkat menjadi Rp.1,2 trilyun dari Rp.813 milyar di tahun sebelumnya.
Laba usaha VIVA meningkat menjadi 540,8 milyar rupiah dari 324,8 milyar rupiah di periode yang sama tahun lalu atau naik sebesar 66,5%.
Total aset yang dimiliki VIVA per 30 September 2014 tercatat 5,98 trilyun rupiah, naik 12,8% dari periode 31 Desember 2013 yang sebesar 5,3 trilyun rupiah.

New Line of Programs

In September, SCMA remained the top performer with 31.4% all-time audience share. MNCN however is following closely behind with 30.7% share and grew by 140bps mom. Both SCMA and MNCN rolled out new lines of programs last month which competed against each other.

MNCN trailed SCMA on all-time. September all-time audience share is still dominated by SCMA with 31.4% share (+60bps mom). MNCN trailed behind with 30.7% (+140bps mom) thanks to improving RCTI and MNC TV. Meanwhile, VIVA snagged 3rd place with 17.3% (-80bps mom). The decline is mostly due to declining TV One share during non-primetime. The Trans Group meanwhile recorded all-time share of 16.0% (-50bps mom).

SCMA maintained as the top primetime group. Last month, SCMA maintained top place for primetime audience share and booked 35.2% share (+120bps mom). The improvement is mostly due to SCTV’s 3 primetime dramas “Ganteng Ganteng Serigala”, “Diam Diam Suka”, and “Emak Ijah Ingin ke Mekah” leading to the network’s share having jumped by 110bps mom. Moreover, SCTV also started to air new primetime drama “Cowokku Superboy”. Meanwhile, Indosiar did not seem to show strong increase despite “Mamamia” that has started airing.

Improvement on MNCN’s primetime. MNCN recorded primetime audience share of 29.9% (+110bps mom). Both RCTI and MNC TV showed growths of 60bps and 70bps mom respectively which we believe due to new programs “Rising Star Indonesia” and “Manusia Harimau”.

Declining trends on both VIVA and Trans. VIVA’s primetime share declined by 90bps mom to 17.7% due to TV One’s share decline. The Trans Group continues its declining trend with another 60bps mom decline.

MNCN showed the strongest non-primetime increase. MNCN booked the highest non-primetime share last month of 31.0%. The company is also the one who showed the strongest growth of 150bps mom. We suspect that this is due to the Asian Games which has been aired by the MNC Group.

SCMA recorded flat non-primetime growth in September. SCMA recorded non-primetime audience shares of 29.1% (+10bps mom). Though SCTV’s share declined by 100bps mom, but Indosiar managed to grow by 110bps mom, thus overall SCMA still recorded positive growth.

Non-primetime decline from VIVA and Trans. VIVA showed non-primetime share decline of 80bps in September to 17.1%. ANTV’s non-primetime continued to do well and showed 110bps growth, but TV One recorded 190bps decline. The Trans Group recorded non-primetime audience shares of 17.7%, a slight decline by 30bps.

VIVA: World Cup Fever

VIVA has shown improvements on its audience shares, however, earnings remain hit by interest expense from its
USD230mn loan. Though the World Cup helped improved audience shares,the program itself was very costly for VIVA.
Based on our calculation and the companies assumptions, we estimated VIVA to be trading at 29.4x FY14F PE vs. industry
at 22.8x.
Restructured and improved. Up to July 2014, VIVA has shown strong improvements in terms of audience share
recording all-time shares of 20.2%. ANTV has successfully become one of the tier 1 networks due to new Indian dramas
and the World Cup. TV One also benefitted from the election. Post World Cup, ANTV remained strong with an all-time
share of 12.3% in 8M14 due to its strong primetime performance. ANTV’s primetime dramas have an average rating of 3.5
and will continue to face RCTI’s and SCTV’s dramas as well as Indosiar’s upcoming talent shows.
How big is the World Cup? The 2014 FIFA World Cup costs VIVA USD68mn. Based on our conversations, airing sporting
events provide the companies with low margin. Assuming 30 minutes of advertisements per match, we estimated
revenue of USD15.4mn for each run of the tournament. With the stated assumptions, VIVA would need to re-air all the
matches at least 5 times to breakeven.
Heavy hit by debt. In order to acquire the rights to air the World Cup this year, VIVA got USD230mn loan from Credit
Suisse. The loan hit VIVA hard in the bottom line and lowers its NPAT in FY13. Net gearing is at 93% as of FY13. According
to VIVA, the company has plans to refinance and reduce its debt level in the future to improve its balance sheet.
Trading at 29.4x FY14F PE. For FY14F, VIVA is targeting Rp2tn revenue with 40% EBITDA margin. Using the stated
assumption as well as USD/IDR rate of Rp11,400, and the same corporate tax rate as FY13, we calculated VIVA’s valuation
at 29.4x FY14F PE vs. industry at 22.8x.

Indonesia Media and Entertainment August audience shares

Surya Citra gained in all-time audience share…
Surya Citra’s audience share recovered to 30.8% in all-time audience share (up 2.2ppt
MoM; up 5.0ppt YoY), back to the March-May level, at the expense of Visi Media’s,
which declined 2.1ppt MoM to 18.1%. Note that Visi Media broadcast the World Cup,
which ended in July. Surya Citra’s gain came from Indosiar’s share, which recovered
1.8ppt MoM to 12.1%, followed by SCTV’s, which rose 0.4ppt MoM to 18.7%. Media
Nusantara retained its 29.3% audience share, despite RCTI’s share falling 0.7ppt MoM
to 14.8%.

…as well as in prime-time audience share
In prime-time, Surya Citra’s share rose to 34.0% (up 3.5ppt MoM; up 11.3ppt YoY),
driven by Indosiar’s, which rose to 13.4% (up 2.8ppt MoM; up 4.3ppt YoY) and
SCTV’s, which rose to 20.6% (up 0.7ppt MoM; up 7.0ppt YoY). We think the gain
came at the expense of Media Nusantara’s share, which fell 1.4ppt to 28.8%, dragged
lower by RCTI’s, which fell 1.5ppt MoM to 17.1%. MNC TV’s and Global TV’s shares
were relatively stable.

What drove Surya Citra’s gain in August?
Indosiar drove most of Surya Citra’s audience share gain in August, given the improving
rating of “D’T3rong” and “New Family 100”. We think that Indosiar’s new
entertainment show “Goyang Goyang Senggol”, a spin-off of “D’Academy”, launched
in mid-August and airing at the weekends in prime-time, helped. Further, English
Premier League football 2014/2015 (August 2014 – May 2015) should also help
support Surya Citra. We expect competition for audience share in September to be
challenging, as two new singing competition talent shows will start: a) RCTI’s “Rising
Star Indonesia”, with direct real-time audience voting interaction, and b) Indosiar’s
“Mamamia”, featuring daughters/mothers as the performers/managers.

Our top pick remains Surya Citra
Surya Citra is our top pick as we like its long-term potential and its high EBITDA margin
and ROIC. We also have a Buy rating on Global Mediacom as we like its multi-platform
model, but we retain our Neutral rating on Media Nusantara given its litigation case
overhang and audience share loss.

Media Sector: On The Spotlight

Stronger advertisement demand from both FMCG and political parties is expected to boost 2014 TV ADEX growth to 20%
yoy. Thus, we view Indonesia’s media sector to be lucrative with potential room to grow in ad rate card with limited
downside risk on margin.
TV ADEX growth of 20% for FY14F. As this year we have the election and the FIFA World Cup, we expect strong ADEX
growth for this year of 20%. Though election should help boost ad spending for 2014, political advertisement is expected
to be 11% of total TV ad spending for the year. We view that ad spending from consumer companies will be the key
catalyst supported by the World Cup event as companies such as MYOR and GGRM are expected to boost A&P spending.
We expect consumer companies on average to boost A&P spending by 30% yoy this year vs. normal year of 15% yoy.
Rate card can still grow. Indonesia’s most expensive primetime ad rate card is USD6,000 per slot on MNCN’s RCTI. It is
still at over 40% discount vs. neighboring countries Thailand and the Philippines. We view that tight supply from the local
FTA (Free-To-Air) channels and high competition for audience share blesses media companies with the strong bargaining
power to increase rate card. Currently, SCMA is in the lead in terms of audience share. As of now, TV ads are 70% of the
total media advertisements.
Indonesians still demand local contents. Based on the trend, most Indonesians still prefer local contents vs. foreign
contents such as the ones from Hollywood. This is a good thing for media companies as local contents are at least 40%
cheaper compared to western contents. Companies such as SCMA now even have its own production house to save
costs. Some foreign contents such as Korean dramas and sports are still lucrative as they are cheap at USD2,000 per
episode and attract many viewers respectively.
Limited margin downside. We view limited downside risk on the sector’s margin as the only risk that might contract
margin is significant cost increase from contents. We expect FY14F Gross Margin of 57.7% and 64.9% for MNCN and
SCMA respectively.

Overweight on media. The sector is trading at 22.8-18.2x FY14-15F PE. At this juncture, we like MNCN on the upsides
from Sindo TV and MNC Channels. We also favor SCMA on its increasing audience share and cost savings which jacked up
its margin.
Key risks include: 1) Slower A&P spending from corporate; 2) Weakening Rupiah; 3) Government intervention through
advertisement regulations; 4) Spike in content costs.

Media Sector: SCMA led the August audience shares rank

Pangsa pasar penonton TV akan lebih normal selama Agustus, terutama selepas Piala Dunia, pilpres, dan Ramadhan.

Pangsa pasar dipimpin oleh SCMA dengan 31% dari penonton seluruh waktu penayangan sebagai hasil dari peningkatan kinerja dari Indosiar. PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN, Rp2.790) mengikuti di posisi kedua denagn 30% penonton seluruh waktu.

Pangsa penonton seluruh waktu PT Visi Media Asia Tbk (VIVA) turun menjadi 18% setelah berakhirnya Piala Dunia. Sementara itu, Trans Group masih flat sebesar 16%.

Indosiar strikes back. SCMA memiliki kinerja yang paling bersinar di waktu penayangan primetime sebagai hasil dari perbaikan Indosiar dengan porsi penonton 34%.

Pangsa pasar PT Indosiar Visual Mandiri (IVM) naik 280 bps MoM pada 8 bulan pertama 2014 terutama karena acara “D’T3rong Show” dan “D’Academy Menggoyang Indonesia”, di mana finalis dari acara cari bakat tersebut menggelar show di seluruh Indonesia.

Sepanjang akhir pekan, IVM juga menayangkan “Goyang Goyang Senggol”, sebuah variety show yang telah menggaet penonton dalam jumlah besar sepanjang bulan lalu.

MNCN recorded 29% audience shares in 8M14. Setelah bulan Ramadhan berakhir, pangsa penonton RCTI turun 150 bps MoM. Dalam kasus VIVA, ANTV masih tetap kuat dengan pangsa pasar 14% karena adanya pilihan drama India sehingga membentuk pangsa pasar grup sebesar 19%. Pangsa pasar Trans Group masih tetap sebesar 14%.

Out with the World Cup, in with the BPL. Karena Piala Dunia selesai pada pertengahan Juli, penonton jam tayang non-primetime VIVA turun dari 21% dari 18% MoM. Penonton ANTV sendiri turin 240 bps MoM pada 8 bulan pertama 2014.

SCMA, atau lebih tepatnya Indosiar saja, membukukan pertumbuhan paling besar yaitu sebanyak 130 bps MoM dari sisi pangsa penonton. Kenaikan pangsa penonton non-primetime IVM menandai mulainya Barclays Premier League (BPL) tahun ini.

Jaringan TV itu juga membukukan peringkat yang baik dari acara kuis “New Famili 100”. SCMA membukukan pangsa penonton non-primetime sebesar 29%.

Saved by sports. Untuk penonton non-primetime MNCN, pangsa pasarnya dibukukan 30% di mana relatif flat. Meskipun pangsa penonton RCTI turun, MNC TV dan Global TV membukukan pertumbuhan positif sehingga menyeimbangkan penurunan yang dibukukan RCTI.

Kami menduga bahwa kenaikan itu terjadi karena acara olah raga seperti turnamen sepak bola Cotif L’Alcudia dan seperti pertandingan Juventus Vs Indonesian Allstar. Trans Group membukukan pangsa penonton 18% terutama akibat kenaikan pangsa penonton Trans7.

What’s next? Bulan ini, Indosiar akan mulai menayangkan “Mamamia” yang kami yakini dapat mendorong penonton jaringan tersebut di jam tayang primetime sedangkan BPL akan membantu untuk jam tayang non-primetime.

Kami menilai MNCN akan terbantu oleh acara olah raga hingga akhir tahun, seperti turnamen AFF Suzuki Cup dan Asian Games ke-17.

Warning letters sent to TV stations, related to political content

MNCN received the most warning letters, followed by VIVA
The Indonesia Broadcast Commission (KPI) has issued 60 warning letters to the 11 free-to-air TV stations with regard to biases in political coverage and political ads. Media Nusantara (MNCN) received 27 of the 60 warnings, followed by Visi Media (VIVA) with 11 warnings, while SCMA received only 6 warnings. (See Fig. 1 & 2 for details.)
Broadcast licenses of TV One and Metro TV could be revoked
TV One (owned by VIVA) and Metro TV are popular news channels but deemed by KPI to have partisan coverage that reflects the political preference of their owners. Under the 2002 broadcast law, FTA TV stations are obligated to have neutral and non-partisan political coverage, hence KPI has issued a recommendation to evaluate the broadcast licenses of both channels, which could eventually lead to revocations by the Government. The broadcast licenses are renewed every 10 years, and need the positive recommendation of KPI. There have been online petitions signed by over 53,000 petitioners, asking for the revocation of the broadcast licenses of the two channels. We note that at this stage KPI has not requested for the evaluation of MNCN’s 3 TV stations’ broadcast licenses, despite receiving 45% of the warnings issued.
Politically affiliated media groups
MNCN‘s CEO Hary Tanoesoedibjo is part of the campaign team for presidential candidate Prabowo, while VIVA is owned by the Bakrie Group, whose patriarch Aburizal Bakrie is the chairman of the Golkar Party, also supporting Prabowo. MNCN and VIVA together held a 49% audience share as of June. Meanwhile, Metro TV (3% share) is owned by the founder of the Nasdem Party, which has officially supported presidential candidate Joko Widodo. Any possible revocation of the broadcast license should benefit the other TV channels, especially the relatively neutral groups such as SCMA and Trans.

Pada 2014, VIVA menyiapkan belanja modal sebesar Rp 900 miliar atau meningkat 125% dibandingkan anggaran tahun lalu Rp 400 miliar

Pada 2014, Visi Media Asia (VIVA) menyiapkan belanja modal sebesar Rp 900 miliar atau meningkat 125% dibandingkan anggaran tahun lalu Rp 400 miliar. Dana belanja modal tersebut dialokasikan untuk pembangunan studio statsion televisi serta pengembangan layanan VIVALL dan VIVA+. VIVALL yang merupakan platform internet streaming telah diluncurkan pada 5 Mei 2014. Sejak itu, VIVALL sudah meningkatkan jumlah pelanggan menjadi lebih dari 500 ribu dengan 1,3 juta screen views melalui Android dan iOS. Layanan VIVALL dan VIVA+ diharapkan turut mendorong pertumbuhan pendaptan VIVA sebesar 30% tahun ini, atau di atas rata-rata pertumbuhan industri media sebesar 15-20%. Selama 2013, VIVA mencatatkan pendapatan Rp 1,7 triliun (+33%, yoy), dan laba bersih Rp 107,3 miliar (+47,1% yoy). Dengan demikian, pendapatan VIVA hingga akhir tahun diperkirakan mencapai Rp 2 triliun. Laba bersih diharapkan mencapai Rp 150-200 miliar, tumbuh 85,3% dibandingkan tahun lalu Rp 107,9 miliar.

VIVA: Grup bakrie akan juga jual saham MDIA IDR1.2t

Dikutip dari Investor Daily, Visi Media Asia (VIVA) akan menjual 10% saham Intermedia Capital (MDIA), yang merupakan induk usaha stasiun televisi, ANTV.

Visi media menargetkan dapat memperoleh dana dari penjualan tersebut sebesar USD105juta, atau sekitar IDR1.25t.

Penjualan saham MDIA, melalui mekanisme penambahan modal tanpa HMETD. Visi media akan menggunakan dana tersebut, untuk pelunasan kredit kepada Credit Suisse senilai USD220juta.

Media Sector: World Cup put VIVA on the spotlight for June 2014

PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN) mendapatkan daya tarik tertinggi untuk penontonnya. Sepanjang Juni, kami menilai ada peningkatan pada MNCN yang mampu menandingi PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA) dalam pembagian pangsa pasar sebesar 29%.

Peningkatan kualitas MNCN terutama adanya pertumbuhan penonton acara primetime di RCTI. Di sisi lain, SCMA tidak mampu meningkatkan pangsa pasarnya pada acara non-primetime. Kami mencatat adanya pertumbuhan penonton PT Visi Media Asia Tbk (VIVA) sebesar 20% di tengah World Cup. Sementara itu, Grup Trans membukukan penonton sebesar 18%.

SCMA still leads the primetime. SCMA masih menjadi pemimpin penonton pada acara primetime dengan penonton sebanya 33%. Drama primetime SCTV yaitu “Ganteng Ganteng Serigala” dinilai akan berlanjut menjadi primetime drama Indonesia teratas.

Debat pilpres pertama juga ditayangkan oleh SCMA di SCTV dan Indonesia, yang juga membantu meningkatkan jumlah penonton jaringan TV tersebut. SCTV memiliki penonton primetime terbanyak pada Juni dengan pangsa pasar penonton 21%.

Primetime growth from RCTI and ANTV. Kami mencatat peningkatan besar pada RCTI adalah ketika pangsa pasar penontonnya naik dari 14% menjadi 17% MoM. RCTI memperkenalkan drama seri baru “Kau Yang Berasal Dari Bintang”, yang didasari drama asal Korea, yang sudah mendapatkan ulasan positif dari penonton.

MNCN recorded primetime audience shares of 28%. MNCN membukukan pangsa pasar penonton primetime sebesar 28%. Sementara drama India di ANTV yaitu “Mahabharata” dan “Mahadewa” membantu stasiun TV itu meningkatkan pangsa pasar penontonnya menjadi 13% dari sebelumnya 10% MoM. Bulan lalu, VIVA membukukan pangsa pasar penonton sebesar 18%.

SCTV remains as the top non-primetime network. MNCN masih tetap memiliki porsi penonton yang besar yaitu 30% untuk penonton acara non-primetime melalui tiga stasiun TV-nya. Meskipun masih tetap besar, pangsa pasar penontonnya turun dari 32% untuk non-primetime.

SCMA juga mengalami penurunan penonton non-primetime MoM dari 29% menjadi 26%. Meskipun demikian, SCTV masih tetap menjadi stasiun TV non-primetime teratas dengan pangsa pasar penonton sebesar 14,9%. Sementara itu, Grup Trans juga mengalami penurunan MoM penonton non-primetime dari 21% menjadi 18%.

World cup fever drove up VIVA’s non-primetime shares. Karena adanya World Cup, VIVA mampu mendapatkan penonton untuk acara non-primetime sebesar 22%. Jumlah itu naik signifikan dari posisi 14% pada Mei.

Acara World Cup sendiri telah mampu menambah porsi penonton ANTV dari 10% menjadi 13% MoM, yang juga menyamakan posisi ANTV dengan jaringan tier 1 seperti RCTI dan SCTV.

The World Cup “Winners”

The World Cup Brazil 2014 that began yesterday and ends on 13 July is one of the world’s most watched sporting events. This will provide many opportunities for advertising and marketing. While this may sound counter-intuitive, the broadcast rights holders are not always the biggest beneficiaries – if they overpaid. In this report, we look at the real financial winners and losers from the World Cup theme.

¨ Precious rights. Singapore charges subscribers the highest fees (USD88.50) in the region for watching the World Cup. This is almost triple the fee charged in Malaysia and about 4.6x that in Hong Kong. We feel that Singtel (ST) overpaid for its broadcast rights. Rival StarHub (STH), which will be able to offer it via cross-carriage rules, may be in better position to benefit from the event.
¨ RS scores. RS (RS), the World Cup broadcast rights holder in Thailand, recently won a court case against the National Broadcast and Telecom Commission (NBTC), which attempted to force the company to broadcast the matches on all platforms. Other companies that may benefit from the World Cup via sports highlights and aggressive marketing include BEC World (BEC TB) and Thai Beverage (THBEV).
¨ The going in Malaysia and Indonesia. For Malaysia, we highlight Astro (ASTRO) and beer companies as beneficiaries, noting the strong ad growth of 15.7% y-o-y during the last World Cup. The management of Media Nusantara Citra (MNC Media) (MNCN) estimated that in Indonesia, elections and football events lifted ad spend by an additional 3% in 2013, although the broadcast rights for the country are held by rival Visi Media Asia (VIVA), whom we feel may not be in the strongest position to monetize the World Cup. We highlight these stocks over the short term. Despite the heightened focus on these stocks during the event, we do not expect it to make a long-term impact on their shares.

VIVA menargetkan pendapatan pada 2014 tumbuh di atas 30% dari pendapatan 2013

Visi Media Asia (VIVA) menargetkan pendapatan pada 2014 tumbuh di atas 30% dari pendapatan 2013. Pendapatan 2013 diperkirakan naik lebih dari 20% atau mencapai minimal Rp 1,49 triliun. Sementara itu, laba bersih 2014 diperkirakan tumbuh di atas 10% dibandingkan praperkiraan laba bersih 2013 sebesar Rp 78,02 miliar atau naik sekitar 7% dibandingkan dengan laba bersih 2012 senilai Rp 72,92 miliar. Target laba bersih 2014 terutama didukung oleh siaran Piala Dunia.

VIVA menganggarkan US$150 juta untuk mengoperasikan layanan televisi berbayar (paid TV)

Visi Media Asia (VIVA) menganggarkan US$150 juta untuk
mengoperasikan layanan televisi berbayar (paid TV). Anggaran
tersebut akan digunakan untuk membeli set-to-box, konten
tayangan, dan biaya sewa transponder sekitar US$1 juta. Dari total
anggaran senlai US$150 juta tersebut, Rp750 miliar akan dipakai
selama 3 tahun ke depan. Anggaran tersebut berasal dari kas
internal perseroan

The free-to-air media company controlled by Bakrie Group highlighted that it is aiming for revenue growth of 30% in 2014

The free-to-air media company controlled by Bakrie Group highlighted that it is aiming for revenue growth of 30% in 2014. The company expect growth to be driven by its multiplatform rights to televise World Cup 2014. The management forecasted revenue of Rp1.3tn (US$106.3m) in 2013. VIVA is also planning to launch a pay-tv business VivaSky with before World Cup. Capex requirement for VivaSky is expected to be Rp1.5tn (US$123m). The 49% joint venture partner for VivaSky will be Konektivitas Infrastruktur Asia Group.

VIVA plans to establish a new subsidiary engaged in the production of broadcast recording or production house

VIVA plans to establish a new subsidiary engaged in the production of broadcast recording or production house. Currently, VIVA is preparing the production infrastructure, such as buying cameras, and complete the legal process of the establishment. This subsidiary will be owned by VIVA at 100%, the production house is targeted to be completed in 1H14. Investments are allocated for the construction of the production house of Rp10bn.

Inilah Target Harga Saham-saham Sektor Media Pemilu 2014 dinilai jadi faktor yang sangat positif bagi kinerja emiten-emiten di sektor media

Inilah Target Harga Saham-saham Sektor Media

Pemilu 2014 dinilai jadi faktor yang sangat positif bagi kinerja emiten-emiten di sektor media. Inilah target harganya hingga pascapemilu 2014.

Pengamat pasar modal Willy Sanjaya mengatakan, faktor pemilu 2014 akan memberikan dampak yang sangat positif untuk kinerja emiten-emiten di sektor media. “Pendapatan iklan mereka akan naik sehingga akan mendongkrak laba bersih,” katanya kepada INILAH.COM.

saham-saham sektor media plus target harganya pascapemilu 2014:

1. PT Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN)

Saham PT Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN), target harga 2014 di level Rp3.175. Harusnya beli sekarang saham ini dan dijual pada pertengahan Oktober 2014, pascapemilu dan target harga tersebut bisa dicapai. Mudah-mudahan pemilu Indonesia tidak diwarnai oleh hal-hal yang tidak diinginkan seperti memanaskan tensi politik yang mengakibatkan kerusuhan.

Hanya saja, dari sisi fundamental, grup ini bermasalah dari sisi MNCTV yang kasasinya dimenangkan oleh Tutut sehingga MNC bisa berubah kembali menjadi TPI. Tapi, menurut saya, pasar lebih baik mengesampingkan efek MNC. Tapi, jika saham MNCN turun dan pecah ke bawah Rp2.000 tetap perlu waspada. Sebab, jika tembus support tersebut, laju saham MNCN akan mengalir deras turun menuju Rp1.500.

2. PT MNC Sky Vision (MSKY)

Saham PT MNC Sky Vision (MSKY) baru berumur dua tahun. Pergerakan harga sahamnya tidak begitu aktif. Menurut saya, lebih baik beli induknya di MNCN-nya. Secara teknikal, resistance MSKY di Rp2.050 dan support di Rp1.600-an. Saya tidak punya target harga untuk saham MSKY.

3. PT Surya Citra Media (SCMA)

Untuk saham PT Surya Citra Media (SCMA) akan sangat mudah mencapai Rp3.500 yang merupakan target harga 2014. Apalagi, volume transaksinya di pasar tidak terlalu banyak. Hanya saja, ada support yang perlu diwaspadai seperti halnya MNCN di level Rp2.000. Saham ini juga bisa mengalir deras ke Rp1.500-nya.

4. PT Visi Media Asia (VIVA)

Sementara itu, saham PT Visi Media Asia (VIVA) sebagai broadcaster resmi piala dunia 2014 sekaligus terdampak positif oleh faktor pemilu. Apalagi, ANTV juga akan melangsungkan Penawaran Umum Saham Perdana (Initial Public Offering/IPO) tahun ini. Target harga saham VIVA tahun ini masih sangat jauh di Rp700-1.000. Syaratnya, penyelesaian berpisahnya BUMI dengan BUMI Plc lancar.

Sejauh ini, harga saham VIVA agak terganggu dengan apa yang terjadi pada grup Bakrie. Mudah-mudahan, dengan pengambilalihan saham mereka di Bumi Plc yang sudah berubah nama menjadi Asia Resources Minerals, masalah di grup ini segera reda. Pasar tinggal menunggu cara pelunasan dan berbagai isu yang mewarnainya. Level harga saham VIVA saat ini sudah cukup murah. Support berikutnya di level Rp220-200.

5. PT Mahaka Media (ABBA)

Untuk PT Mahaka Media (ABBA), yang bosnya Erick Tohir membeli saham Inter Milan, sahamnya tidak aktif. Bahkan saya tidak pernah memperhatikan saham ini. Jika melihat historisnya, saham ini pernah lama tidur di Rp50 meskipun sekarang bertenger dalam kisaran Rp108-110 per saham. Rekomendasi saya netral untuk ABBA.

6. PT Tempo Inti Media (TMPO)

Begitu juga dengan saham PT Tempo Inti Media (TMPO). Enggak ada rekomendasi juga untuk TMPO.

Pada perdagangan Senin (20/1/2014) saham PT Tempo Inti Media (TMPO) ditutup menguat Rp2 (1,37%) ke Rp147 per saham.

Secara umum, yang bisa jadi pilihan hanya tiga saham di sektor media yaitu MNCN, SCMA, dan VIVA. Boleh beli sekarang untuk tiga saham tersebut dan jual pada pertengahan Oktober. Kita membaca, suhu politik 2014 cukup aman. Secara Price to Earnings Ratio (PER), saham-saham tersebut masih menjanjikan potential gain pada 2014.

New loan USD230 for VIVA

VIVA obtains loans from Credit Suisse AG Singapore of USD230mn on 1 Nov13. VIVA will ensure PT Asia Global Media, PT Redal Universe, PT Lativi Mediakarya, PT Viva Media Baru, PT Intermedia Capital, PT Andalas Horizon Television, and Digital Media PT Asia for these debts. VIVA is currently in the process of fulfilling the withdrawal terms of the USD230mn credit facilities. The funds will be used to refinance VIVA’s debt, which is maturing in Feb14, and the remainder for business development.

VIVA meraih pinjaman sebesar USD 230 juta dari Credit Suisse AG

Visi Media Asia (VIVA) meraih pinjaman sebesar USD 230 juta dari Credit Suisse AG. Untuk mendapatkan utang tersebut, perseroan menjaminkan saham 3 anak usahanya yaitu Lativi Mediakarya (TVOne), Cakrawala Andalas Televisi (ANTV), Viva Media Baru ( Perseroan akan menggunakan pinjaman untuk melunasi utang sebesar USD 80 juta kepada Deutsche Bank pada Februari 2014 dan sisanya untuk pengembangan usaha

Daily Technical View 2013 10 03

Daily Technical View (Ciptadana)

IHSG diprediksi bergerak dalam rentang 4,320 – 4,425

BMRI : Buy on Weakness di Rp8,250-Rp8,150
Komentar : Testing support (TP fundamental 11,000)

ITMG : Buy on Weakness di Rp26,000-Rp25,800
Komentar : Testing support (TP fundamental 59,000)

ADHI : Buy on Weakness di Rp2,000-Rp1,870
Komentar : Testing support (TP fundamental 4,600)

BBRI : Buy on Weakness di Rp7,400-Rp7,300
Komentar : Testing support (TP fundamental 9,900)

Business News

*VIVA Cari Pendanaan Hingga US$100 juta
*ITMG Membagikan Dividen Rp1,014/saham
*ROTI Berencana Stock Split 1 : 5
*JPFA Membeli Dua Peternakan Sapi di Australia

VIVA telah mendapatkan izin dari pemegang sahamnya untuk menjaminkan sebagian besar atau seluruh aset anak usahanya guna memperoleh pembiayaan

PT Visi Media Asia Tbk (VIVA) telah mendapatkan izin dari pemegang sahamnya untuk menjaminkan sebagian besar atau seluruh aset anak usahanya guna memperoleh pembiayaan. Beberapa anak usahanya yang akan dijaminkan itu yakni TV One, ANTV, dan Vivanews.

Menurut manajemen VIVA, perusahaan akan mencari pembiayaan di atas US$100 juta dengan bunga yang paling rendah, dan diperkirakan hanya 9%. VIVA juga berencana mencatatkan saham salah satu anak usahanya yaitu PT Cakrawala Andalas Televisi (ANTV) melalui PT Intermedia Capital awal tahun. Nilai IPO-nya diprediksi di bawah Rp500 miliar.

Profit Taking Berlanjut

Bursa Wallstreet kembali ditutup melemah pada perdagangan Senin dengan indeks Dow Jones turun 49,71 poin atau 0,32%, S&P 500 turun 0,47%, dan Nasdaq turun 0,25%. Pelaku pasar masih mencermati kebijakan the Fed minggu lalu yang mempertahankan kebijakan stimulus pembelian obligasi US$ 85 milyar setiap bulan. Isu mengenai batas anggaran kembali menghangat setelah pemerintah kembali membahas rencana pendanaan untuk setelah bulan Oktober, Republik telah menyetujui undang-undang anggaran sampai 15 Desember namun akan menarik anggaran kesehatan Obamacare.

Bursa eropa ditutup melemah dipicu oleh ketidakpastian komposisi formasi koalisi pemerintah Jerman setelah Angela Merkel kembali unggul dalam pemilu dan berencana membuat grand koalisi dengan partai mengenah-kiri Social Democratic. Indeks FTSE turun 0,59%, CAC turun 0,75%, DAX turun 0,47%.

Bursa Indonesia hari ini diperkirakan masih akan bergerak melemah dipicu oleh masih overbought-nya IHSG dan saham-saham unggulan memicu berlanjutnya aksi profit taking. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan hari ini antara lain VIVA, META, KLBF, BBRI, CPIN.

(Semesta Indovest)

VIVA meraih untung sepanjang semester I-2013

Visi Media Asia (VIVA) meraih untung sepanjang semester I-2013. VIVA mencetak laba bersih Rp 27,9 miliar, atau naik 61,3% dibandingkan periode sama tahun lalu Rp 17,3 miliar. Pertumbuhan laba bersih yang signifikan tersebut juga berasal dari keberhasilan VIVA melakukan efisiensi. Salah satunya dengan mengerem kenaikan beban program. Beban program VIVA hanya naik 12,1% dari Rp 183,1 miliar menjadi Rp 205,2 miliar. Begitu juga dengan beban umum yang naik 24,3% dari Rp 229,7 miliar menjadi Rp 285,5 miliar.

VIVA memastikan peluncuran divisi bisnis baru televisi berbayar akan berlangsung pada November 2013 dengan target sebanyak 1 juta pelanggan

Visi Media Asia (VIVA) memastikan peluncuran divisi bisnis baru televisi berbayar akan berlangsung pada November 2013 dengan target sebanyak 1 juta pelanggan. Perseroan menyatakan sedang berfokus memfinalisasi proses administrasi perizinan Viva Sky, lini bisnis baru televisi berbayar milik Visi Media. Perseroan memprediksi industri televisi berbayar akan terus tumbuh dari level saat ini 5%-7% menjadi 15% terhadap total pemilik tv dalam kurun waktu 5 tahun ke depan. Perseroan menyatakan pemilik tv saat ini sekitar 45 juta orang. Sehingga, dalam 5 tahun ke depan, industri televisi berbayar akan memiliki pasar sebesar sekitar 7 juta-an orang.

VIVA Tetap Bersama Bakrie

VIVA Tetap Bersama Bakrie

TAK ada kejutan pada Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Tahunan (RUPST) PT Visi Media Asia Tbk (VIVA), di Studio ANTV, Kompleks Rasuna Epicentrum Lot 9, Kuningan, Jakarta, Rabu pekan lalu. Keputusan RUPST antara lain hanya mengumumkan, VIVA tidak membagikan dividen untuk tahun buku 2012.

Padahal, beberapa hari sebelumnya tersiar kabar akan ada pengumuman penting dari hasil RUPST VIVA. Yakni, pelepasan 49% saham PT Cakrawala Andalas Televisi, pengelola stasiun televisi ANTV, ke konglomerasi media Grup Media Nusantara Citra (MNC), milik Hary Tanoesoedibjo.

Bahkan, kabar itu menyebutkan, harga ANTV dibanderol sampai Rp 6 triliun. Angka ini tentu saja luar biasa. Sebab, berdasarkan laporan keuangan Visi Media Asia per kuartal I-2013, aset Cakrawala Andalas Televisi hanya Rp 1,04 triliun.

Namun, kalau melihat kinerja ANTV dari tahun ke tahun, harga sebesar itu cukup pantas. Lihat saja dari pendapatan VIVA pada 2011 senilai Rp 970 miliar, sebesar Rp 460 miliar disumbang oleh ANTV. Angka itu dipastikan melonjak mengingat pendapatan VIVA di tahun 2012 sudah mencapai Rp 1,2 triliun.

Tak hanya itu. ANTV juga telah mengantongi hak siar Piala Dunia 2014. Dengan memegang hak siar olahraga yang sangat digemari rakyat Indonesia ini, keuntungan yang diperoleh televisi nasional ini semakin bertambah gemuk. Sederet prestasi inilah yang membuat ANTV punya harga cukup mahal di mata para investor.

Tapi, benarkah ANTV akan dilego kepada Grup MNC? “Ini masih spekulasi dan saya tidak bisa komentar,” ujar Anindya Novyan Bakrie, Komisaris Utama PT Visi Media Asia Tbk kepada InilahREVIEW (lihat: Ini Masih Spekulasi).

Memang, bisa dimaklumi kalau kabar penjualan tersebut berhembus cukup kencang. Sebab, belakangan ini hubungan bisnis Grup MNC dan Grup Bakrie cukup intensif. Menjelang akhir tahun lalu, misalnya, Hary Tanoe membeli semua jalan tol yang dibangun dan dikelola oleh PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) milik Grup Bakrie senilai Rp 3 triliun.

ELTY menjual dua jenis aset miliknya. Pertama, adalah anak usaha mereka, PT Bakrie Toll Road (BTR) yang memiliki lima konsesi jalan tol, yakni Ciawi-Sukabumi, Kanci-Pejagan, Pejagan-Pemalang, Batang-Semarang dan Pasuruan-Probolinggo. ELTY mematok harga lima konsesi jalan tol itu sebesar Rp 2 triliun.

Kedua, ELTY juga menjual kepemilikan aset di Lido Resort senilai Rp 1 triliun. ELTY menjual kedua aset tersebut dalam satu paket kepada Grup MNC pada akhir tahun 2012.

Tak hanya itu. Pada Board Meeting Bumi Plc Februari lalu, Keluarga Bakrie menggandeng Hary Tanoe untuk membendung laju Nathaniel Rothchild yang berkolaborasi dengan Hashim Djojohadikusumo untuk menguasai Bumi Plc. Upaya Rothschild itu gagal setelah Bakrie menggandeng Hary Tanoe.


Jadi, wajar saja kalau muncul kabar VIVA akan menjual ANTV kepada Grup MNC. Bahkan, kalau mau ditarik garis ke belakang, tak cuma ANTV yang akan dijual, tapi VIVA sebagai holding.

Memang, sejak beberapa bulan lalu, kabar penjualan VIVA menjadi isu yang cukup hangat. Sejak itu pula beredar kabar bahwa beberapa taipan media mengajukan penawaran kepada Bakrie. Selain Hary Tanoe lewat Grup MNC, juga ada Chairul Tanjung (CT Corp), Sariaatmadja (SCTV dan Indosiar), termasuk Kompas Gramedia Group.

“Kami pernah ditawari. Namun, harganya memang kemahalan,” kata Agung Adiprasetyo, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Kompas Gramedia Group kepada beberapa waktu lalu.

Chairul sendiri termasuk yang paling bernafsu untuk membeli saham VIVA. Bahkan, pemilik Trans TV dan Trans 7 sudah menyiapkan dana sebesar US$ 1,8 miliar atau sekitar Rp 17,5 triliun untuk memborong semua saham perusahaan yang mengoperasikan tvOne, ANTV, dan ini. “Hanya kami (pembeli) yang bisa membayar tunai seratus persen,” ujar Chairul Tanjung, seperti dikutip beberapa waktu lalu.

Tak hanya Chairul. Hary Tanoe pun demikian. Pemilik Grup MNC, yang mengendalikan puluhan televisi ini, kabarnya beberapa kali sempat menawar harga kepada Bakrie. “Sebagai orang media, kalau misalnya medianya bagus, ada willing buyer willing seller ya tidak apa-apa,” ujarnya.

Namun, dari sekian penawar itu, Bakrie cenderung memilih Grup MNC, terutama dalam hal penjualan ANTV. Pembelian ANTV oleh MNC, kata sumber majalah ini, dikemas dengan opsi buy back agar di kemudian hari Bakrie bisa membeli kembali saham ANTV.

Arya Sinulingga, Corporate Secretary MNC Group mengakui bahwa VIVAmemang pernah mengungkapkan niatnya untuk menjual ANTV melalui konsultan asing. “Setelah kami lakukan perhitungan, menarik juga,” kata Arya kepada InilahREVIEW (lihat: Kami Wait and See Saja).


Bakrie dikabarkan ingin menjual VIVA untuk mendapatkan dana segar dalam rangka pembelian kembali saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) yang ada di Bumi Plc. Maklum, Bakrie ingin ‘bercerai’ dengan Bumi Plc karena kerap berselisih dengan Nathaniel Rothschild, salah satu pemegang saham perusahaan yang tercatat di bursa efek London tersebut.

Dalam skema perceraian itu, Grup Bakrie akan menukar guling 23,8% sahamnya di Bumi Plc dengan 10,3% saham BUMI. Selain itu, mereka juga menawarkan pembelian 18,9% saham BUMI yang dipegang Bumi Plc seharga US$ 278,3 juta. Sebagai tanda jadi, pada Februari lalu Bakrie telah menyetor dana sebanyak US$ 50 juta.

VIVA sendiri termasuk perusahaan yang cukup bersinar di Grup Bakrie. Tahun 2012, VIVA mencatat laba bersih sebesar Rp 72,92 miliar atau naik 177% dibandingkan laba bersih tahun 2011 senilai Rp 26,26 miliar.

Dalam laporan keuangan yang dipublikasikan, naiknya laba bersih itu karena pendapatan terdongkrak sebesar 25,06% menjadi Rp 1,24 triliun dari tahun sebelumnya Rp 992,63 miliar.

Selain itu, VIVA adalah perusahaan yang punya kapitalisasi pasar cukup besar. Menurut Neil Tobing, Corporate Secretary VIVA, pada 8 Februari 2013, nilai kapitalisasi pasar VIVA di Bursa Efek Indonesia mencapai Rp 8,67 triliun.

Nilai kapitalisasi pasar itu bisa bertambah gemuk bila akhir tahun ini VIVA jadi meluncurkan televisi berbayar bernama VIVA Sky. Menurut Presiden Direktur VIVA, Erick Tohir, kekuatan dari VIVA Sky ini adalah pada tayangan Piala Dunia 2014. “Target kami dapat meraup 300 ribu pelanggan pada semester I-2014,” kata Erick Tohir kepada InilahREVIEW seusai RUPST VIVA, Rabu pekan lalu.

Jadi, melihat kinerja yang bagus dan langkah yang apik ini, kecil kemungkinan VIVA dijual kepada investor. Itu artinya, VIVA masih tetap di tangan Bakrie. “Kami akan terus meningkatkan kinerja VIVA,” kata Anindya.

Lantas, bagaimana upaya Bakrie mendapatkan dana segar untuk membeli kembali saham Bumi Resources yang ada di Bumi Plc? “Anak perusahaan Bakrie kan masih banyak,” kata sumber majalah ini.

News Highlights 2013 05 03

News Highlights 2013 05 03

Pemilik jaringan ritel Alfamart, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT), membidik kawasan Kalimantan untuk ekspansi jaringan guna mengejar target penambahan 800 gerai tahun ini. Perseroan menyatakan hingga kuartal I/2013 jumlah gerai yang dimiliki AMRT sebanyak 7.000 gerai yang tersebar di seluruh wilayah Indonesia. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Visi Media Asia (VIVA) membukukan pertumbuhan pendapatan sebesar 27,5% menjadi Rp 312 miliar pada kuartal I-2013, dibanding periode sama tahun lalu Rp 244,8 miliar. Selama kuartal I-2013, laba sebelum bunga, pajak, depresiasi dan amortisasi (EBITDA) melonjak 61,4% menjadi Rp 88,1 miliar. Laba bersih melonjak 7 kali lipat menjadi Rp 1,4 miliar dari Rp 200 juta pada periode sama tahun lalu. (Investor Daily)

Sarana Meditama Metropolitan (SAME), pengelola Rumah Sakit (RS) Omni Pulomas dan RS Omni Alam Sutera, berhasil mencetak laba bersih pada 2012 sebesar Rp 23,27 miliar dibandingkan 2011 yang membukukan rugi bersih Rp 12,19 miliar. Perolehan laba bersih didukung oleh pendapatan konsolidasi yang meningkat 12% menjadi Rp 270,47 miliar pada 2012 dibandingkan 2011 sebesar Rp 241,57 miliar. Di lain pihak, beban pokok pendapatan meningkat sebesar 7% menjadi Rp 147,85 miliar dari Rp 138,28 miliar. Peningkatan beban yang lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan peningkatan pendapatan selama 2012 mengakibatkan peningkatan laba kotor sebesar 19% pada 2012 menjadi Rp 122,61 miliar dibandingkan 2011 sebesar Rp 103,29 miliar. Marjin laba kotor perseroan untuk 2012 pada 45%. (Investor Daily)

Lembaga pemeringkat Standard & Poor’s (S&P) mengubah prospek rating Indonesia dari positif menjadi stabil. Rating utang jangka panjang Indonesia tetap bertahan di BB+. Menurut S&P, momentum reformasi yang tertahan dan profil eksternal yang lebih lemah telah mengurangi potensi perbaikan peringkat selama 12 bulan ke depan. Prospek stabil itu mencerminkan pandangan S&P bahwa pelemahan lingkungan kebijakan dan tekanan eksternal Indonesia mengimbangi prospek pertumbuhannya yang kuat, kebijakan fiskalnya yang konservatif, dan kinerja utang yang baik. (Bloomberg)

Morning Bell 2013 03 28


Garuda Indonesia (GIAA), Multi Indocitra (MICE) & AKR Corporindo (AKRA)

Garuda Indonesia (GIAA): Flying High

Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) melaporkan kenaikan laba sebesar +72.6% di 2012. Kenaikan ini didorong oleh naik nya operating income mereka yang sebesar +82%. Industri penerbangan di Indonesia masih terus tumbuh secara kuat. Selain didukung oleh manajemen yang baik, pertumbuhan GIAA pun didukung olehe beberapa faktor makro seperti pertumbuhan GDP yang stabil, pertumbuhan industri penerbangan yang sebesar 16.2%, dan juga pertumbuhan traffic jalur penerbangan Garuda yang sebesar 11.3%. Secara service, selama 2012 GIAA mendapatkan banyak penghargaan antara lain seperti World’s Best Regional Airlines 2012 dan Best Regional Airline in Asia 2012. Peringkat GIAA pun naik, dari peringkat 19 menjadi 11. Secara valuasi pun GIAA saat ini diperdagangkan di level harga yang cukup murah jika dibandingkan emiten airlines lain nya di regional.

GIAA Compare

Konsensus di Bloomberg masih memberikan rekomendasi BUY untuk GIAA dengan nilai wajar di Rp820/lembar.

Multi Indocitra (MICE): Cheap Consumer Stock

Multi Indocitra (MICE) adalah perusahaan yang memproduksi produk-produk perlengkapan bayi dengan merk Pigeon untuk dipasarkan di Indonesia dan diekspor ke mancanegara. Selain itu MICE juga salah satu distributor produk lampu dengan merk Hori. 2013 ini, dengan pengalaman dan jaringan distribusi yang kuat,emiten mulai terjun ke industri kecantikan dengan meluncurkan produk baru yaitu dengan Merk Astalift dan Albu. Secara performance, emiten mengabarkan bahwa laba bersih mereka di 2012 Rp46.6 Milyar atau naik sebesar +28.2% dari tahun sebelum nya Rp36.3 Milyar di 2011. Kenaikan laba ini didukung oleh naik nya penjualan bersih mereka yang senilai Rp560,03 milyar di 2012 atau tumbuh sebesar +20.4% dibandingkan tahun 2011. Saat ini EPS berdasarkan performance keuangan mereka di 2012 sebesar Rp68, dengan asumsi pertumbuhan sepanjang 2013 ini sebesar 30%, maka EPS dapat tumbuh menjadi Rp88.4/saham. Dengan asumsi pertumbuhan tersebut, maka saat ini MICE diperdagangkan di level 8.5x PE13f menjadikan nya salah satu saham dari sektor konsumer yang cukup murah.

AKR Corporindo (AKRA): Shifting to New Business

AKR Corporindo (AKRA) berencana untuk “banting setir” ke industri properti tahun ini. Industri pertambangan yang saat ini sedang lesu dan relatif rendah nya margin kotor dari penjualan bahan bakar minyak (BBM) dan bahan kimia yang hanya sebesar 4% hingga kuartal III 2012. Emiten menggandeng PT Pelindo III untuk membangun kawasan industri dan pelabuhan terpadu di gresik. Emiten sudah membeli lahan seluas 900 hektare (ha) senilai Rp 1,4 triliun di Gresik, Jawa Timur untuk dibangun kawasan industri. Saat ini total luas kawasan industri AKR mencapai 2.150 ha. Naik nya UMP (Upah Minimum Provinsi) di Jakarta dan beberapa daerah sekitar nya di Bodetabek memberikan imbas positif terhadap perkembangan industri di daerah lain nya, khusus nya di Jawa Timur. Permintaan akan lahan industri diperkirakan akan meningkat seiring bertumbuh nya pertumbuhan industri di Jawa Timur. Secara technical, Resistance terdekat di 5,550 sebelum berikutnya ke 5,850 dengan dukungan indikator bergerak positif serta kecenderunga volume tembus rata-rata. Support di 5,150.


Special Mention

Visi Media Asia (VIVA) naik sebesar +12% pada perdagangan kemarin dan diperdagangkan di atas volume rata-rata harian nya. Berita mengenai rencana akan dibeli nya VIVA oleh group Trans atau group MNC memberikan sentimen positif terhadap saham tersebut. Meski demikian, berita mengenai penjualan saat ini masih simpang siur. Recommendation: Speculative BUY untuk VIVA.

Lippo Cikarang (LPCK) saat ini diperdagangkan di harga yang cukup murah. Dengan asumsi diskon 50% terhadap NAV mereka sekalipun, emiten masih mempunyai nilai wajar sebesar Rp9000/lembar. Selain itu, emiten juga mempunyai balance sheet yang kuat, zero debt, dan pertumbuhan yang stabil di beberapa tahun terakhir.

Adhi Karya (ADHI) mengeluarkan laporan keuangan 2012 menyebutkan bahwa emiten mencetak laba sebesar Rp214 Milyar, atau 14% lebih tinggi dari perkiraan konsensus. Untuk 2013 ini, eminten menargetkan jumlah kontrak baru yang dapat diraih akan sebesar Rp16.8 Triliun, atau 60% lebih tinggi dibandingkan kontrak mereka di 2012 yang hanya sebesar Rp10.5 Triliun.

PT PP Persero (PTPP) memperkirakan laba bersih untuk 2012 naik sebesar 28% menjadi Rp307 Milyar, dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelum nya sebesar Rp240 Milyar. Angka ini sedikit diatas estimasi kami yang memperkirakan kenaikan laba sebesar +21.4%. Kami masih memberikan rekomendasi BUY untuk PTPP, dengan TP di Rp1200.


Jakarta Composite Index (JCI): Naik Terbatas, Hati-hati Distribusi

IHSG hari ini diperkirakan masih cenderung naik namun sudah mulai terbatas. Diperkirakan resistance terdekat di level 4,944.59 dan support di level 4,880. Dari uptrend channel terlihat IHSG makin mendekati level psikologis ke level 5,000 setelah pada perdagangan kemarin tembus centerline. Kenaikkan kemarin juga sepenuhnya didukung oleh volume yang tembus rata-rata selama tiga hari perdagangan terakhir (sejak tgl 25 Maret’13) atau sejak indeks ini naik dari support trendline pada uptrend channel dalam pergerakkan normalnya.
Disamping itu juga terlihat masih adanya potensi kenaikkan dari indikator teknikal secara umum. Namun patut juga diwaspadai jika terjadi kenaikkan diatas level resistance diatas, indeks rawan terhadap pola distribusi.

1. AKR Corporindo (AKRA), Accumulated Buy

Jika harga saham ini mampu tembus level 5,300 dengan dukungan volume minimal mendekati rata-rata diperkirakan kenaikkan akan berlanjut dengan resistance terdekat di 5,550 sebelum ke level 5,800. Support saat ini di 5,150. Indikator teknikal secara umum masih cenderung naik. Cut loss level di 5,000.

2. Agung Podomoro Land (APLN), Buy on Weakness

Demikian juga halnya dengan harga saham ini, koreksi juga mulai terbatas sehubungan dengan makin mendekatnya indikator teknikal secara umum ke support trendline khususnya indikator RSI Optimized. Support diperkirakan sekitar level 480 dengan resistance terdekat ke 530 sebelum ke level 550. Buy back di 470.

3. Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI), Buy on Weakness

Indikator teknikal secara umum juga diperkirkan akan tertahan di support trendline dengan perkiraan support saat ini di level 1,140 dengan perkiraan resistance terdekat di 1,110 sebelum ke level 1,170. Indikator teknikal secara umum masih cenderung tertekan dalam kisaran terbatas. Buy back di level 1,040.

4. Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE), Accumulated Buy

Potensi kenaikkan harga saham ini masih terlihat dengan perkiraan resistance terdekat di 1,810 sebelum ke level 1,930. Suport saat ini di level 1,700. Indikator teknikal terlihat maish cenderung naik dengan dukungan volume naik mendekati rata-rata. Cut loss di level 1,690.

5. Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF), Trading Buy

Demikian juga dengan harga saham ini , terlihat masih berpotensi untuk naik perkiraan resistance terdekat di 7,700 sebelum ke level 7,850. Suport saat ini di level 7,500. Indikator teknikal terlihat masih cenderung naik dengan dukungan volume tembus rata-rata. Cut loss di level 7,450.

6. Malindo Feedmill (MAIN), Buy on Weakness

Sejauh harga saham ini mampu bertahan minimal di level 3,150 diperkirakan koreksi akan tertahan. Resistance terdekat diperkirakan sekitar level 3,250 sebelum ke level 3,350. Koreksi kemarin tidak didukung oleh volume yang tidak tembus rata-rata. Buy back di level 3,100.

7. Nusantara Infrastructure (META), Buy on Weakness

Koreksi harga saham ini juga mulai terbatas dengan perkiraan support di 230. Sementara itu resistance terdekat di 280 sebelum ke level berikutnya di 310. Terlihat Indikator sudah mendekati support trendline. Buy back di level 230.

8. Media Nusantara (MNCN), Trading Buy

Jika harga saham ini mampu tembus level 3,000 diperkirakan kenaikkan akan berlanjut dengan perkiraan resistance terdekat di level 3,100 sebelum ke level 3,200. Indikator terlihat secara umum masih cenderung naik. Cut loss level di 2,850.

Local News: ASII / PTBA / Media Sector / INDF / VIVA

Local News: ASII / PTBA / Media Sector / INDF / VIVA
Please note that the items below are taken directly from local newspapers. Hence, Credit Suisse does not guarantee the accuracy of the stories.

Astra International (ASII, O, PT Rp9,500): February Motorcycle Sales
Indonesia’s February motorcycle sales reached 653,357 units (+0.5% MoM, -2.7% YoY). During the month, Honda/Yamaha/Suzuki market share stood at 61/31/6. For 2M13, total industry sales amounted to 1.3 mn units (-0.1% YoY). The Association of Indonesia Motorcycle Industry (AISI) stated that the weak February sales were due to the postponement of consumer purchases, given: 1) the planting season in the agribusiness industry; 2) higher inflation in February; and 3) higher down payment requirement for auto loan.

Sales commentary: In our view, Indonesia’s 2M13 motorcycle sales are quite defensive on YoY basis, given all the challenges mentioned by the Association. ASII is currently trending in positive sentiment following its firm 2012 results announcement of late. We, however, would be selling ASII shares on strength at this juncture, as the stock is moving to retest its major resistance level of Rp8,300.

Bukit Asam (PTBA, O, PT Rp19,000): 2012 Earnings Slightly Below Expectations
PTBA 4Q12 earnings came-in at Rp705 bn (+10% QoQ, -8% YoY), which brought 2012 bottom line to Rp2.9 tn (-6% YoY) – 7% and 5% below CS and consensus 2012 estimates. PTBA 4Q12 revenue stood at Rp2.9 tn (-2% QoQ, +2% YoY), which brought 2012 top line to Rp11.6 tn (+10% YoY) – 5% and 4% below CS and consensus 2012 projections.

Sales commentary: PTBA’s slightly weak 2012 results were due to lower-than-expected production and selling price. During the year, PTBA’s coal production and ASP stood at 14 mn tons (+9% YoY) and US$78/ton (-12% YoY), which is 10% and 6% below CS’ expectations.

Media Sector: Advertising Spending Grew 21% in 2012
According to AC Nielsen, Indonesia’s 2012 total ad spend grew 21% YoY to Rp87.5 tn. In terms of the media, 64% of the ad spend is done through television, while the remaining 33% and 4% are done through newspaper and magazine.

Sales commentary: Despite the 24% 5-year CAGR, Indonesia’s ad spend remains as one of the lowest in the region, which implies sound growth outlook for the industry. In Indonesia’s media space, we like Media Nusantara Cipta (MNCN, O, PT Rp2,700) amid its strong market positioning in the free-to-air television industry in addition to its comprehensive media business portfolio.

Indofood Sukses (INDF, N, PT Rp6,700): No Flour Price Increase
INDF denied market’s speculation that Bogasari Flour Mills, INDF’s subsidiary that contributes 24% to the parent’s revenue, is planning to raise its selling price.

Sales commentary: The Street’s speculation on the price hike above was being driven by news that the government has placed a 20% limit on the importation of wheat flour from Turkey, Australia and Srilanka. INDF management, however, stated that the competition in the wheat flour market remains very tight, which somewhat restricts producers to hike prices.

Visi Media (VIVA, Not Rated): Two Remaining Bidders?
Bisnis Indonesia reported that there are two remaining bidders in the divestment of VIVA: CT Corporation owned by Chairul Tandjung and MNC Group owned by Harry Tanoesoedibjo. Parent company of Surya Citra Media (SCMA, O, PT Rp2,760) and Indosiar Karya Media (IDKM, O, PT Rp1,400), Elang Mahkota (EMTK, Not Rated) has dropped out from the bidding following the hike in the asking price to US$1.8 bn, from US$1.4 bn previously.

Sales commentary: Bisnis Indonesia reported that Bakrie Group and Erick Thohir are looking to sell 72% and 5% of their stakes in VIVA. It was also reported that US media giant, Newscorp owns 7% stake in VIVA.

News Highlights – 2013 02 19

News Highlights

Holcim Indonesia (SMCB) menandatangani kontrak senilai US$ 250 juta atau Rp 2,4 triliun dengan perusahaan asal Jerman TyssenKrupp Polysius, untuk pembangunan pabrik Tuban II, Jawa Timur. Saat ini perseroan segera menyelesaikan masa pembangunan pabrik Tuban I. Pabrik baru tersebut diprediksi mulai berproduksi pada semester pertama 2015 dengan kapasitas 1,7 juta ton per tahun. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Semen Indonesia (Persero) (SMGR) mencari fasilitas pinjaman melalui Export Credit Agency (ECA) sekitar Rp 2,38 triliun untuk menambah pendanaan pembangunan dua pabrik semen baru tahun ini. Perseroan menggunakan ECA karena bunga yang ditawarkan cukup kompetitif dan dana tersebut digunakan terutama untuk pengadaan mesi di dua pabrik baru yakni di Rembang, Jawa Tengah, dan Padang, Sumatera Barat. Sebelumnya disebutkan, perseroan membutuhkan dana sekitar Rp 7 triliun guna merealisasikan pembangunan dua pabrik yang memiliki kapasitas masing-masing 3 juta ton per tahun itu. Pendanaan melalui ECA mencakup sekitar 34% dari total investasi proyek tersebut. (Bisnis Indonesia)

CT Corp, perusahaan yang dikendalikan oleh Chairul Tanjung, dikabarkan mengajukan penawaran senilai US$ 1,2 miliar untuk mengakuisisi mayoritas saham Visi Media Asia (VIVA), perushaan media milik Grup Bakrie.  Selain CT Corp, Grup Media Nusantra Citra (MNC) dan Elang Mahkota Teknologi (Emtek) juga dikabarkan berminat mengakuisisi VIVA, pemilik TV OneANTV, dan Vivanews.(Investor Daily)

Nusantara Infrastructure (META) mengincar dua proyek jalan tol. Total investasi dua tol itu sekitar Rp 10,5 triliun.Dua ruas tol itu adalah Balaraja-Serpong dan Kuala Namu-Medan. Tender dua tol tersebut dimulai pada Mei 2013. Perseroan telah melewati proses evaluasi awal. Nilai investasi tol Balaraja-Serpong mencapai Rp 5 triliun, sedangkan Kuala Namu-Medan sebesar USD 580 juta atau sekitar Rp 10,5 triliun. Dalam proses awal seleksi tender tol Balaraja-Serpong, terdapat 10 perserta. Saat ini, tersisa empat peserta. Selain perseroan, peserta tender lainnya adalah Bumi Serpong Damai yang menggandeng Grup Astra, satu perusahaan lokal, dan satu perusahaan India. (Investor Daily)

News Headlines/Others 2013 02 18

POLITICS – Media Nusantara Citra (MCNC) CEO Hary Tanoe joins Peoples Conscience Party (Hanura), headed by retired general Wiranto. With this coalition, Hanura is expected to have much better access to media in run-up to 2014.

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI) reported weak same-store-sales growth (Sssg) data. In January 2013, MAPI posted 0% Sssg, a record low January number since 2008. They have yet to provide the breakdown amongst their division. Comment: As for MAPI, the company claimed that their weaker Sssg was partly on the back of Jakarta’s flood impact. This makes sense as MAPI’s greater Jakarta sales accounts for about 72% of their overall sales. We however think that cannibalization impact should also play role in weaker Sssg given company’s aggressive store expansion of 100k sqm last year. Overall, we see a slower growth trend amongst retailers including ACE Hardware (ACES) and Ramayana Lestari (RALS), which posted 6% and -12% Sssg respectively as per January 2013.

Mortgage rates still going lower – BCA (BBCA) launches 7.5% 3 year fixed mortgage rate valid to end Apr 2013. The offer is in addition to the bank’s 8.5% 5 year fixed offer.

BCA (BBCA) loan growth 27% for 2012. The growth is above system credit growth of 23% for 2012. The bank expects 18% credit growth in 2013, due to a higher base achieved in 2012. For the year to Nov 2012 the bank recorded Rp10.7t (+14% yoy). Comment: The FY12 loan growth is slightly below our expectation of 33% (9M12 loan growth was 35%). The 11 month profit number points to BCA being able to meet our full year Rp11.65t (by simply annualizing). BCA is slated to report earnings for FY12 on Mar 27.

Indofood (INDF) to acquire 15% China Minzhong shares. Indofood has agreed to put US$72mn of equity participation into China’s leading integrated vegetable processing, China Minzhong Food Corporation (CMFC). CMFC will issue 98mn shares at a price of S$0.915/sh or 10% discount to closing trade. Comment: We see this as an opportunistic acquisition, hence a small portion of 15% stake. We have yet to see any synergy with their current business unit at this moment. However, this might be a good advantage should the company aim to develop fruit/vegetable juice business under their JV with Asahi.

18 toll roads eligible to have tariff increase this year. Comment: JSMR has 11 toll roads (out of this 18) eligible for tariff increase this year. Tariff increase for JSMR’s toll road is expected from August 2012 onwards.

F&B franchise regulation update: Indonesian Franchise and License Association(WALI) to challenge regulation to Supreme Court (Mahkamah Agung).WALI spokesperson stated that recent F&B franchise regulation from Trade Ministry(Permendag no.7) is not in line with Law no 35 (UU no.35) as UU prohibits big entities to interfere with SME, while Permendag encourages SME to own 30-40% stake in big entities’ restaurants. WALI suggested govt to revise Permendag, to increase SME’s stake to 51% and to provide exemption for restaurants in remote areas. Separately, KFC (FAST) will start offering 40% investment stake on its 180 stores in 2014, rather than franchising its outlets to third party due to agreement with KFC license owners, Yum! Brands. Comments: We understand WALI’s argument , for implementation of regulation might deviate from its initial purpose of protecting SME. For instance, big foreign restaurant operators now might be able to enter Indonesia if they are able to find local partners. On FAST, as the regulation itself bears high execution and implementation risk and FAST is allowed 5 years grace period to sell their stake, we think the regulation could change in that period of time.

Fonterra to build milk processing plant. New Zealand milk producer will build the plant in Jakarta area, with total investment reaching US$20m and is expected to be completed in 18 months. In addition, Fonterra will also educate Indonesian cow farmers in New Zealand to improve their cow breeding techniques. Comments : Fonterra has announced this plan for a while, given the big potential of Indonesian milk market, as highlighted in our last year’s note Indonesia consumer (Got milk?)

Mobile operator Telkomsel (owned by TLKM) to expand to 10 countries. Telkomsel aims to expand operation to Malaysia, Hongkong, Myanmar, Macau, United Emirates Arab, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia. For expansion TLKM group will provide a sim card called “Kartu As 21” that consists of 2 numbers, first one is respective country’s number, and the other one is Indonesian number. Comments: As we have highlighted in our previous note Telkom – BUY (Moving in the right direction) , we think that TLKM should focus on improving infrastructure in domestic market.

Wijaya Karya (WIKA), SOE Construction Company, targets Sarana Karya acquisition, asphalt producer, this year. WIKA will then spend Rp250bn (US$25m) to finance development of asphalt factory via Sarana Karya. The plant will target capacity of 50,000t pa. WIKA is still waiting on the government process of Sarana Karya divestment and expected to pay less than Rp100bn (US$10m).

Lotte Chemical Corp (part of South Korean Lotte Group) confirmed US$5bn petrochemical plant investment. Construction is expected to start this year and take ~4 years to finish. This investment could potentially cut 20% Indonesia’s petrochemical imports (valued between US$5-6bn).

Tiles producer Arwana (ARNA) to expand to outer Java. ARNA has increased its capacity with the new production plant in Palembang by 8mn sqm. ARNA also targets 2012 net profit to be Rp155bn(US$16m), +64% yoy, supported by increased demand.

Gloomy year for Kobexindo (KOBX), heavy equipment distributor to continue in 2013? Kobexindo which went public in June 2012, is now looking at non-mining sectors including forestry and plantation to help soften the impact of slowing global demand for coal. The firm distributes South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Equipment products as well as Germany’s Jungheinrich products. The firm’s net profit in 3Q12 fell by 6% to Rp61.4bn (US$6.3m) while it booked a 2.1% sales increase in the same period.

Update on Japfa’s (JPFA) plan to split stocks. The Stock Exchange suspended the trade of Japfa’s shares as the animal feed producer hasn’t yet come up with clear ratio for the stock split. It is seeking shareholder approval on Mar 20 for a stock split. Still deciding on the split ratio but would be between 1:5-1:7.

Update on Bumi Plc saga. Indonesia Stock Exchange requires Bakrie Group via Bakrie and Brothers (BNBR) to reveal the source of fund to buy back BUMI’s (BUMI) shares from Bumi Plc. Earlier this month (12 Feb) Bakrie Group has committed to setting aside US$50m to buy back 18.9% of Bumi’s shares which is valued at US$278m. Bakrie Group has to pay off the remaining amount within 5 days of the Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting on 21st Feb. Comment: While Bakrie Group did agree on the head of term agreement with Bumi Plc, it was unclear whether BNBR was the vehicle used by Bakrie Group. BNBR management has previously denied their involvement in this transaction.

Bakrie subsidiaries trying to sell assets. In a bid to ease the heavy debt burden, subsidiaries of Bakrie Group including Bakrie Sumatera (UNSP), Energi Mega (ENRG) and Visi Media (VIVA) are trying to sell assets. The plantation unit plans to sell some of its plantation concession and Domba Mas (an oleochemical producer) to collect US$648m. While ENRG wants to sells its stake at Masela Block worth US$1.2bn. Comment: The group denies that the asset sale is related to the Bakrie Group and Bumi Plc transaction. The vote related to the proposal will take place on Feb 21st.

Pakoakuina setup JV with Japan’s Topy Industries in wheel rim business to serve truck and bus markets. Pakoakuina, part of Tripatra Group, holds 30% stake in the JV. 40% of total investment (estimated at US$62m) will be funded by bank loans. The new factory (with 2m rims annual production capacity) is expected to be constructed next month and finished in early 2014.

Indonesian Dollar Sukuk Yield falls to 6-week low of 1.95%. This follows debt management office statement that the issuance size will be cut this year to reduce currency risk from weak Rupiah. The government intends on keeping foreign currency bonds below 20% of total debt issued (currently the proportion is 19.5%) to reduce risk to further IDR declined. Comment: There is only 1 global dollar Sukuk with 3 year or shorter tenor maturing in 2014. Indonesia last issued US$1b of 3.3% Sukuk with 2022 maturity in Nov 2012.

Bank Mizuho Indonesia gets Rp2.02tr (US$200m) from Mizuho Corporation and Bank Negara (BBNI). Following the capital injection, CAR increased to 17%. Comment: This is joint venture bank established in the 1990s with Mizuho controlling 99% and BNI 1%. The capital injection will support further lending by Mizuho’s subsidiary in Indonesia.

POLITICS –son of Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) key leader leaves Indonesia a day before his travel ban issued. He fled to Turkey on 7th Feb 2013. He was scheduled for questioning in relation to beef import case, which has already dragged down former PKS chairman on accusations of receiving bribes from two businessmen in return for helping them obtaining beef quota.